Week 3 is typically the week for teams to make statements that result in gross overreactions because the tend is for there to be a lot of divisional games that set a tone with games that count double in the standings.
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook‘s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 3 player prop bets to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
This week’s picks involve 3 division matchups and players from 2 teams that remain winless despite starting the year with playoff expectations. This allows for some desperation to set in and the need for their stars to shine.
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NFL week 3 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:27 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow OVER 265.5 passing yards (-115)
The Bengals have left their fans heartbroken by blowing their Week 1 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers and following that up with a prime-time loss to the Dallas Cowboys without QB Dak Prescott.
The Bengals are just too good to not get things right and they’re facing a New York Jets team that upset them last year (34-31). On the revenge scale, that checks 2 boxes.
The only concern you should have is if the Bengals get up big early and start running the ball more and killing off the clock. That said, the Bengals haven’t had anything near a complete offensive game yet this year and Burrow will blow past 300 yards when they do.
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Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor OVER 85.5 rushing yards (-115)
The automatic inclination is that the Kansas City Chiefs will roll past the Colts, who are coming off a shutout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. However, the only way the Colts can compete with the Chiefs is to keep QB Patrick Mahomes and the potent Kansas City offense on the sidelines. That will require a heavy dose of Taylor.
The Chiefs haven’t played the Colts since 2019 and have yet to play against Taylor. The Chiefs haven’t had a strong run offense and the Colts have enjoyed their best success when Taylor gets heated up and carries the ball at least 20 times.
Barring the Colts getting blown out early, they’re not going to give up on the run. If Taylor gets to 20 carries, he goes Over on this number.
Also see: All Week 3 odds and lines
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New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley UNDER 76.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Giants are at 2-0 and will be at home Monday night against the Dallas Cowboys looking to make it 3 straight wins to start the year. If that is going to happen — I don’t think it will — there will have to be a whole lotta Saquon goin’ on.
In a battle of two of the worst quarterbacks in the league — Cooper Rush and Daniel Jones — both teams are likely to lean heavily on their running backs. I like the odds of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard getting the job done a lot more than Barkley.
Dallas has a very good defense and Barkley will be their focus of attention to force Jones to beat them. If Barkley is to hit 77 yards, it may take 20 or more carries and I just don’t see the Giants sticking to the run if he is bottled up with 8 in the box on running situations.
Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown OVER 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
There has been a lot of chatter this week about Washington Commanders QB Carson Wentz playing his first game against his former team. However, I think the bigger focus here is going to be QB Jalen Hurts as he’s the reason why the Eagles moved on from Wentz in the first place.
The Eagles can be a dominant run offense, but the investment made in Brown has almost forced Philadelphia to change the way it operates. The Commanders’ cornerbacks have never played against Brown, so they’ve just seen film of what he is capable of doing. When they meet for the second time this year, their approach will likely be different.
I can envision Brown catching 6 of 7 passes in this game with physical matchups he wins every time. All it takes is one downfield play to hit the Over on this number.
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill OVER 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
Miami is looking to signal that the AFC East runs through them with a must-see matchup against the Buffalo Bills. The Over/Under on this game in terms of points is very high (52.5) and the expectation is that both teams will need to do their part to surpass that number. A 34-31 game isn’t out of the realm of possibility and, if that happens, Hill will definitely be a part of it.
The Bills are no stranger to Hill. In their last two meetings, he has caught 18 passes for 213 yards. Even when Buffalo has attempted to limit his production, he still gets the ball in his hands.
What seals the deal for me is that neither team operates an offense that takes its time. Both squads tend to snap the ball with more than 10 seconds left on the play clock and like to force the issue. That results in more snaps in the 60 minutes of game time. The Bills aren’t going to play field position and given the Dolphins’ comeback against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2, even if Buffalo gets up by 20 they will keep their foot on the gas.
With 10-15 more snaps than Miami would face against somebody like the New England Patriots, I like Hill’s chances of getting 75 or more receiving yards.
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