NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 1

It’s Week 1 in the NFL and everything is positive. Every team is convinced it has what it takes to take a step forward regardless of where they finished last season. Optimism abounds.

In that spirit, of our 5 prop bets to select, none of them are taking “no” for an answer. We have 4 players projected to hit the Over on their Over/Under bets and another to score a touchdown against a hated rival.

Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook‘s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 1 player prop bets to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL week 1 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:05 p.m. ET.

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (-109)

Jackson’s new contract deadline came and went without resolution, so he decides to take matters into his own hands against the New York Jets and former Ravens starter Joe Flacco.

Jackson is more likely to start making business decisions in the red zone and while he is known for using his legs to score touchdowns, against a Jets team that is going to struggle to put up points, 2 passing TDs doesn’t seem unreasonable — especially if you think the potential for 4 or 5 Ravens touchdowns in a distinct possibility.

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Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 5.5 receptions (+102)

The Lions open the season at home against a Philadelphia Eagles team that is the trendy pick to win the NFC East. To accomplish that, winning against teams like the Lions are games they have to lock down.

This has all the makings of the Lions being behind and Jared Goff having to throw 40 times. If that’s the case, St. Brown will be heavily involved in that production.

St. Brown caught 8 or more passes in each of his last 6 games in 2021 and there’s no reason to think that Goff won’t target him a dozen times. If that happens, 6 receptions is minimum that can be expected.

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Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions (-109)

The post-Tyreek Hill era has entered the Chiefs locker room and Patrick Mahomes has a bunch of new players brought together to fill that massive void. But the 1 player he has as a security blanket over the years is Kelce.

As the new-look Chiefs start 2022, they go on the road to play the Arizona Cardinals — a team that has done its best to replicate what the Chiefs do best in their explosive passing attack.

Kelce has an exceptional skill of finding soft spots in zone defenses and settling in to give Mahomes a safety net for gains that move the chains. He is going to draw added defensive attention, but JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman can prevent defenses from constantly doubling Kelce.

What makes this bet one to consider is that there is a likelihood that Kelce catches 3 passes in the first drive or 2 of the game. That makes getting to 7 over the final 3 quarters a lot easier.

Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen scores a touchdown (+180)

Justin Jefferson is the star in Minnesota, but Kirk Cousins has a thing for Thielen, especially in the red zone.

Over the last 2 seasons (28 games), Thielen has caught 24 TDs, including 3 in the 3 games he has played against Green Bay in that span. Jefferson is one of the games top downfield threats, but when it comes to the field being compressed in close, Cousins looks to Thielen first.

Thielen and Cousins have a rapport off the snap that has been perfected over the years and if the Vikings have a 1st-and-goal situation, expect to see the 2 connect for a score … at least once.

Denver Broncos RB Javonte Williams OVER 56.5 rushing yards (-125)

The NFL-sanctioned storyline heading into the Broncos game with the Seattle Seahawks is Russell Wilson playing his 1st game since his trade in a stadium where he was loved and beloved for the last decade.

If you were to script this from the Wilson revenge perspective, he throws for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns in a shredding of his former team. But that isn’t how Russ cooks. When he was going to Super Bowls, he was a game manager on offense who fed a steady diet of run plays and mixed in downfield passes to keep defenses honest.

In Denver, he has the chance to do the same. Williams and Melvin Gordon are a dangerous combination that wear down defenses. Given the uncertainty of Seattle’s QB situation — Geno Smith isn’t the answer — the ideal Wilson scenario is to run 40 times and throw 25. If that comes anywhere close to happening, it will be almost impossible for Williams not to hit that number.

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