There’s never a good time to be winless in the NFL. Week 4 is right about where it becomes fatal.
Only one team in history has ever gone from 0-4 to a place in the postseason. That was the 1992 Chargers, who somehow finished 11-5 and beat the Chiefs in the Wild Card round before getting shutout by the Dolphins one week later. Four teams are staring down those long odds this weekend. Three are trapped in rebuilds with no expectation of success, even in a 17-game season with 14 playoff spots.
Then there’s the Colts.
Carson Wentz has yet to undergo the revival promised when Indianapolis shipped a potential first round pick to free him from Philadelphia’s grasp. What was supposed to be a glorious reunion with former offensive coordinator Frank Reich has instead produced one of the league’s least-efficient offenses. He’s not only dealt with injury — sprains to both ankles in the same game! — but also his own worst instincts:
Shovel pass INT from Carson Wentz pic.twitter.com/A1fvl2pBWU
— CJ Fogler (@cjzer0) September 19, 2021
It’s now or never for the Colts, but this team has too much talent to remain stuck with the Jets and Giants of the world. After a Week 1 stomping at the hands of the Seahawks, Indianapolis has played tough against the undefeated Rams and AFC South-leading Titans. Now it gets a reprieve vs. the Dolphins, a 10-win team in 2020 playing without its starting quarterback.
That’s a ripe time for the Colts to pick up their first W of the season. Their robust tailback rotation, even without Marlon Mack, has the chops to break through a Miami squad that’s allowed 4.3 yards per carry. Their underperforming defense can rattle Jacoby Brissett one week after he helped fritter away a 14-0 lead spotted to him by the Raiders’ awful start.
That said, if Wentz’s ankles take a turn for the worse and we’re suddenly subjected to the Jacob Eason show … well this is officially a Dolphins pick.
Let’s see what else we’ve got for Week 4. Winners in bold, all odds via Tipico:
Washington (-110) at Falcons
Texans at Bills (-1000)
Lions (+122) at Bears
Panthers at Cowboys (-220)
Colts (+105) at Dolphins
Browns (-130) at Vikings
Giants at Saints (-350)
Titans (-290) at Jets
Chiefs (-320) at Eagles
Cardinals at Rams (-220)
Seahawks at 49ers (-155)
Ravens at Broncos (-105)
Steelers at Packers (-300)
Buccaneers (-320) at Patriots
Raiders at Chargers (-175)
Keep reading for more insight. And hey, if you like these picks you’ll probably love Sarah Hardy’s. My co-founder over at the Post Route and former SB Nation NFL editor is one of the smartest football minds I know AND she’s got a similarly sterling 33-15 pick record this fall after going 13-3 last week. You can subscribe for free or just drop in to check out our content here.