Here’s where the NFL season gets weird.
Week 18 is a cauldron of unpredictability in professional football. Teams in the playoff hunt will put their seasons on the line against opponents who may care more about getting home safely for the offseason than ruining someone else’s year. Teams with their postseason status locked in could rest their starters, keep them on the field to avoid rust, or work in some combination of the two strategies.
In the past three years, we’ve seen quarterbacks like Mason Rudolph, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin III, and AJ McCarron earn starts in their teams’ season finale. Betting lines set on Monday can be thrown out the window by Thursday. And we’ve mostly just touched on the good teams out there.
There’s no real disincentive not to tank for a better draft pick beyond “respecting the game.” Last year the Eagles came perilously close to beating Washington in Week 17 and inserted third-string quarterback Nate Sudfeld in the fourth quarter to ensure the outcome. That sent the Football Team to a division title, helped keep the Giants out of the postseason (being awful the previous 16 weeks was similarly detrimental to New York), and ultimately played a significant role in speeding up the franchise’s rebuilding process.
But wait! There’s more! We’re still dealing with Covid-19 testing and various injuries, all of which only further muddy the waters of an already unpredictable season. What will happen in a Bengals-Browns game where neither team has its starting quarterback? Is this the week the Jacksonville Jaguars finally get the emphatic post-Urban win we’ve been waiting for, destroying the Colts’ playoff hopes and setting us up for a primetime game of kneeldowns between the Chargers and Raiders?
Probably not! But I’m not ruling anything out this year. Let’s make some predictions, including the famous Rhody Scumbag Lock of the Week (now 7-15 on the season!). Want the full lineup? Those can be found here.
Here are my breakout picks. All odds via Tipico.