A parlay is the juiciest bet on the menu—a multiple team/total bet where all the legs need to win for the bet to cash—because it’s the riskiest play to make. A 5-bet NFL parlay is no small feat but luckily for us, BetMGM has a ton of pricing and line options building a winner.
Since the parlay is a multiplier bet, we’re going to be taking more expensive sides and totals to increase our win probability while still hitting a nice payout.
Leg 1: Eagles (-125) vs. Rams
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
Philadelphia opened up as a -130 favorite but Los Angeles was bet up earlier in the week and now the market has bought back the Eagles (-125) to nearly their opening price.
Seventy-four percent of the bets placed are on the Rams but only 59% of the cash wagered is on them. What this info implies is that the public is on the Rams heavier than the sharps. The public took Los Angeles after watching them win on Sunday Night Football in Week 1 and we want to fade the public.
Leg 2: Colts (-167) vs. Vikings
Indianapolis ruined a ton of survivor league entries with its Week 1 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars but that loss cheapened the Colts (-167) price. When you dig into the numbers of Indy’s loss there are positive takeaways. The Colts didn’t punt once, outgained the Jaguars in total yards, 445-241, and they had a plus-three sack differential.
Minnesota got demolished by the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, losing 43-34. The Vikings replaced their secondary this offseason with unproven, inexperienced cornerbacks who got carved up by Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Philip Rivers and T.Y. Hilton will have similar success as Rodgers and Davante Adams, making the Colts (-167) easy money for the straight up win.
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Leg 3: Seahawks (-200) vs. Patriots
New England picked off Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick three times and held the Dolphins to just 11 points in Week 1. The Patriots defense isn’t going to feast on Russell Wilson like they did Fitzmagic. Bill Belichick’s praise of Wilson in the media this week says all you need to know about Wilson.
Furthermore, the acquisition of S Jamal Adams should pay off in this matchup. Adams led the Seahawks (-200) in tackles, tackles for loss and added a sack and two QB hits in Week 1. His presence will reduce the danger of Cam Newton making plays with his feet.
While it’s not the same home situation because of the circumstances, Wilson and the Seahawks have been nearly unbeatable at home in primetime.
Leg 4: Chiefs (-6.5, -162) at Chargers
Let’s finagle with the prices a little and get the Chiefs’ spread below the key number of seven from the current spread of Chiefs -8.5 (-110). Every one of their key players from the Super Bowl LIV run made a contribution in Kansas City’s 34-20 Week 1 win over the Houston Texans.
The Chargers looked unimpressive squeaking past the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. We’re playing it a bit safe but the Chiefs will win by at least a touchdown.
Leg 5: Panthers-Buccaneers Under 48.5 points (-139)
We’re going to revisit the “key number” thing and buy the Panthers-Buccaneers total up to 48.5 (-139). Bucs QB Tom Brady struggled against a good New Orleans Saints defense in Week 1 and he’ll be without Pro Bowl WR Chris Godwin in this game.
The Buccaneers should have success against a bad Panthers defense but that success will come in the form of long, time-consuming drives. Tampa Bay’s defense has a lot less hype but is the better unit. They should make it tough for the new-look Panthers offense to move the ball.
FIVE-TEAM PARLAY | Bet $100 to earn a $1,100.41 profit
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