Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday with a throwback two-game Thanksgiving Day slate.
The Turkey Day parlay options were cut short Wednesday with the Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers game shifted to Sunday due to COVID-19 concerns in Baltimore. Adjustment is truly the name of the game here in 2020, so we’ll go with a two-leg parlay with one selection from each game, including a money line underdog.
Here goes …
NFL Thanksgiving parlay picks and predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET.
Leg 1: Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+135)
Yes, we realize the injury-addled Lions have been on the skids of late, having dropped three of their last four games, both straight up and against the spread, including an ugly 20-0 shutout loss Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. With that defeat, the Lions joined the winless New York Jets (Week 6 in Miami) as the only teams to be blanked in a game this season.
Not good company to keep.
Better news looks to be in store on the health front as RB D’Andre Swift and WR Danny Amendola are trending toward returning Thursday.
That would be good news against the opposing Texans who are 3-7 straight up and against the spread. The Texans are getting gashed defensively to the tune of 411.7 yards and 27.2 points allowed per game.
The Lions have covered in six of their last eight Turkey Day contests, and with the spread right around a field goal here, we’ll go with a money line wager on the home team.
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Leg 2: Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys UNDER 45.5 points (-106)
This contest is tied for the sixth-lowest total of the week on the 16-game slate, and looking at the numbers it’s easy to see why.
The Cowboys’ defense has been better of late, holding its last four foes to 28 or fewer points, but still is allowing a league-most 31.8 points per outing. That, though, is the only outlier unit of the game’s quartet as the WFT is permitting the ninth-fewest points (22.7) while averaging the fourth-fewest points (20.0) in the league.
The raw numbers say Dallas is averaging 23.5 points per outing on the season, but that average has dropped to 14.4 per contest in the five games since QB Dak Prescott‘s season-ending injury in Week 5.
Washington won the first meeting between these two teams, rolling 25-3 in Week 7, and that contest featured a clock-killing 65 rushing attempts and 55 QB dropbacks (passing attempts plus sacks).
We envision a similar game script Thursday as the two 3-7 squads, led by backup QBs Alex Smith and Andy Dalton, play it relatively safe with, believe it or not, the NFC East lead on the line Thursday afternoon in Big D.
Go with the Under here.
Two-team parlay (+356): Bet $100 to earn a profit of $356.70.
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