May Win Totals for all 32 teams:#nfl @nflnetwork @AroundTheNFL https://t.co/0bnRGljUDQ
— cynthia frelund (@cfrelund) May 16, 2024
Following the release of the NFL’s 2024 season schedule, NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund projected win totals and playoff possibilities for every team in the league. According to Frelund, the Bucs are projected to win 7.8 games, missing the playoffs. Frelund has the Atlanta Falcons winning the division with 9.9 wins and the New Orleans Saints just behind the Bucs with 7.4 wins.
Frelund highlights a treacherous four-game midseason stretch that includes the Chiefs, the 49ers, the Falcons and the Ravens as a major contributor to the Bucs’ limited win ceiling. She also cites the loss of several key players on defense and offensive coordinator Dave Canales as a reason why the Bucs may struggle to maintain their winning ways.
Frelund’s predictions for Tampa Bay are a little more generous this year than last in which the Bucs were projected to be among the worst teams in the league with 6.4 wins. While this was not a novel forecast, it was obviously incorrect as the Bucs ended up winning the NFC South.
Despite winning the division and a playoff game last year, the Bucs are still considered firmly in the middle class of the NFL. The lack of splashy offseason additions no doubt feed into the Bucs’ diminished esteem, whereas the Falcons are the toast of the town thanks to their turnover at head coach and quarterback. The Bucs’ focus on consistency appears less valued in these preseason projections.