This year was never going to be a very good one for quarterback prospects. The preseason favorites to be the first guys off the board, Sam Howell and Spencer Rattler, each suffered through unpleasant 2021 campaigns.
That left the mantle of “FUTURE FRANCHISE QB” to be carried by: a fifth-year senior who came into his final year at Pittsburgh with a 37:25 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 39 games and a guy who couldn’t win Auburn’s starting job so he transferred to Liberty.
Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis may still be the first two quarterbacks off the board. If Thursday’s trends hold up, they won’t even sniff the top 10. As the final round of 2022 NFL mock drafts roll in, experts are more confident than ever that teams aren’t interested in investing major draft assets in flawed passers.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper, for example, had Willis selected sixth overall nine days ago. Now he’s convinced there won’t be any quarterbacks selected until Pickett and Willis go back-to-back at 19th and 20th. His colleague, Todd McShay, had Pickett drafted sixth overall on April 5th; now he sees the Pitt signal caller lingering all the way to the final pick of the first round.
The worldwide leader’s big name duo isn’t alone. Here’s where other scribes see this year’s top quarterbacks landing on the morning of Day 1:
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL.com: Pickett 20th, Willis 32nd
- Lance Zierlein, NFL.com: Willis 17th, Pickett not drafted in the first round
- Trevor Sikkema, Pro Football Focus: Willis 20th, Pickett 31st
- Danny Kelly, The Ringer: Pickett 19th, Willis 20th
- Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz, USA TODAY: Willis 16th, Pickett 20th
It’s been nine years since a quarterback failed to be selected among the first 15 picks. That was Bills’ draftee EJ Manuel, who led a quarterback class that also featured Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib. In 2000, the Jets waited until the 18th pick to make Chad Pennington that year’s first QB. The passers behind him featured Chris Redman, Marc Bulger and Tom Brady.
The last time a quarterback failed to be drafted in the top 20? That was back in 1997 when the 49ers tabbed Jim Druckenmiller as their franchise cornerstone with the 26th pick. The prospects selected after him included Jake Plummer, Danny Wuerffel and Koy Detmer.
What’s the lesson here? That this is probably not the year your needy team — read: the Panthers, Saints, or Steelers — are going to find their long-term answer at the draft. But, with a tremendous amount of luck, they might pluck a future Hall of Famer from the undesirables on Day 3.
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