Thanksgiving is only a week away and we’re quickly cutting to the chase in the 2019 NFL season.
Believe it or not, every team will have only five games remaining after this weekend, and each one takes on added significance with postseason berths and draft positioning on the line. We will see if that means more favorites come through in the win column – and, for our purposes, against the point spread – as the stakes grow higher.
Last week, favorites posted a season-best-matching 9-5 mark against the mid-week lines, and we were able to forecast only one (the Arizona Cardinals) of the five covering underdogs, moving our season record to 19-14.
The Week 12 pickings look slim at the outset, but come up with three dogs we must, utilizing Wednesday’s point spreads from BetMGM.
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) at Houston Texans
Quarterback Jacoby Brissett was back Sunday, and so was the Colts’ mojo as they snapped out of a two-game skid with a 33-13 rout of the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. This week, Brissett looks like he may get back his top weapon in wideout T.Y. Hilton.
The Texans, meanwhile, came off their Week 10 bye and were summarily smashed by Lamar Jackson and the red-hot Baltimore Ravens 41-7 on the road. The rout highlighted the Texans’ growing defensive deficiencies as they’ve surrendered 24 or more points in five of their last six outings.
That includes a 30-23 road loss to Brissett and the Colts in Week 7 – Indy’s fifth win in the last six series meetings, including a 21-7 road playoff triumph last January in the Wild Card Round.
Also factor in the success of Thursday night underdogs and their 8-3 record against the spread this season, and there is ample reason to back the visiting Colts Thursday night.
Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) at New England Patriots
Yep, we’re playing with fire again, siding against the Patriots who are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games dating back to Week 17 of last season.
The New England defense is allowing a league-low 10.8 points per game but has famously feasted largely on a group of bottom-feeder teams and injury-addled offenses.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are anything but, ranking fourth in the league with an average of 28.6 points per game and have the requisite run-pass balance to pose a serious challenge.
Overshadowed by a dominant defense, Tom Brady and his offense simply haven’t been their usual potent selves and have managed only five offensive TDs over the last three games.
The Cowboys may not pull off the outright upset in Foxborough, but they have more than enough to make this Sunday afternoon national showcase game a close one.
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
After bouncing back from their first loss of the season, the Niners are tied with the Pats for the league’s best record at 9-1.
But whether it’s been a rash of key injuries or the up-and-down play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers have covered only once in their last five outings and are 5-4-1 overall ATS on the season.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, meanwhile, are only one game behind the Niners at 8-2 and have been at their best in their biggest games, beating the division-rival Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings, and winning on the road in Dallas and against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Now comes their biggest test yet – a prime-time NFC playoff-seeding showdown in San Francisco – and we give Rodgers and Co. more than a puncher’s chance to not only cover but come away with the outright road upset.
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