[jwplayer k6Zfh9W2-ThvAeFxT]
The New Orelans Saints improved to an 11-3 record with their win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15, tying with one team they’ve already beaten (the Seattle Seahawks) and one that they haven’t (the Green Bay Packers) on top of the NFC playoff standings.
But the Saints are the third seed, not the first or second. If the playoffs started today, they would be hosting the sixth-seeded Minnesota Vikings while the Seahawks and Packers rest during their bye week. What gives?
It comes down in-conference win percentage. The Seahawks have the same record against other NFC teams as the Packers (8-2); they are both in better standing than the Saints (8-3). Normally, tiebreaking procedure for playoff seeding would go by overall record, and then head-to-head results. If it were just the Saints and Seahawks involved, the Saints would rank ahead.
But because the Packers are in the mix, that head-to-head ruling is thrown out the window. And because the Packers have earned a stronger record against NFC opponents than the Saints, they get the second seed behind Seattle. Because Green Bay is tied with the Seahawks and there is no head-to-head tiebreaker, the next step is to examine common opponents. And that’s where Seattle has an edge, having gone 4-0 against teams the Packers have a 2-2 record with.
This is why Saints fans should be pulling for the Seahawks to win the NFC West instead of the San Francisco 49ers, and why they should root for the Packers to drop another game (maybe next week, against the Vikings). If the Saints and Seahawks finish the year with identical records as the top two teams, the Saints can get the first seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
If it’s San Francisco instead, their head-to-head win over the Saints gives them that first seed. On top of that, the Packers have an easier road to claiming the first seed over the Saints, so for at least the next two weeks, Saints fans are pulling double-duty and backing up the 12’s. The Vikings could theoretically unseat the Packers on top of the NFC North and shake it all up, but that’s unlikely given Green Bay’s regular season finale with the lowly Detroit Lions.
For the curious, here’s how each of these teams looks against in-conference, plus the wild-card Vikings and 49ers. We aren’t going to worry about the NFC East winner, because the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are both terrible (and mathematically don’t matter; the best record either of them can finish with is 9-7). Overall records are in bold text:
- 11-3 Seattle Seahawks: 8-2 in the NFC, .800
- 11-3 Green Bay Packers: 8-2 in the NFC, .800
- 11-3 New Orleans Saints: 8-3 in the NFC, .727
- 10-4 Minnesota Vikings: 7-3 in the NFC, .700
- 11-3 San Francisco 49ers: 8-2 in the NFC, .800
[vertical-gallery id=24937]