The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet Friday for the final time this season when they face off in a deciding Game 5 of their AL Division Series at 7:10 p.m. at San Diego’s Petco Park. As the No. 1 seed, Tampa Bay will be the home team. Below, we analyze the Yankees-Rays Game 5 MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Thursday: New York won 5-1 as SP Jordan Montgomery (4 IP, 1 ER, 3 H) and three relievers (5 IP, 0 H) shut down Tampa Bay’s offense. The Yankees’ big hits came from 1B Luke Voit (solo HR in 2nd) and SS Gleyber Torres (2-run HR for 4-1 lead in 6th).
Yankees vs. Rays: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow
Cole went 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA (73 IP, 23 ER) with 94 K in 12 regular- season starts. He’ll be pitching on three days’ rest the first time in his career.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K vs. Rays in ALDS Game 1 Monday – Yankees won 9-3
- Career vs. Rays in regular season: 0-3, 4.07 ERA (42 IP, 19 ER), 64 K in 7 starts
- Career postseason: 8-4, 2.75 ERA (78 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 99 K in 12 starts
Glasnow posted a 5-1 record with a 4.08 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 26 ER) and 91 K in 11 regular-season starts. He’ll be pitching on two days’ rest after throwing 93 pitches Tuesday.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 10 K vs. Yankees in ALDS Game 2 Tuesday – Rays won 7-5
- Career vs. Yankees in regular season: 1-2, 3.70 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 10 ER) in 5 starts
- Career postseason: 2-2, 6.00 ERA (18 IP, 12 ER) in 4 starts
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Yankees vs. Rays: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Rays
- RP Oliver Drake (flexor strain) out
Rays vs. Yankees: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Rays 8, Yankees 5
Money line (ML)
With Cole on the mound, the Yankees (-154) are the favorite, but I’m backing the RAYS (+140). It’s just a better value play.
Pitching for the Houston Astros, Cole beat the Rays twice in the 2019 ALDS, holding them to one run over 15 2/3 innings (0.57 ERA). The second of those wins coincidentally came in a deciding Game 5 vs. Glasnow, who took the loss.
But this is 2020, and the Rays proved they can hit Cole. They scored three runs off him Monday in six innings, and scored nine runs in 16 1/3 innings during his three regular-season starts vs. them.
The RAYS (+140) will find a way to win, just like they did when they won 8 of the 10 regular-season meetings vs. the Yankees this season.
New to sports betting? Every winning $1 bet on the Rays ML profits $1.40. Every $1.54 bet on the Yankees ML will profit $1 if they win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Rays (+1.5, -129) are 8-2 vs. the RL in their last 10 games. The Yankees (-1.5, +105) are 6-10 vs. the RL in their last 16.
I’m going to PASS and focus on the ML and Over.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 7.5 (100) is the STRONGEST PLAY – which is 1½ your usual wager. The Over is 3-1 in this series. Don’t let Cole starting scare you – especially since he hasn’t thrown on short rest before. The number is just too low the way this ALDS has gone.
Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.
| Johnny’s 2020 MLB record | 69-47-1 |
| 2020 MLB postseason | 5-10 |
| 2020 overall record (all sports) | 110-77-3 |
| Strongest plays (all sports) | 56-30-1 |
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