The New York Yankees (31-13) head to Tropicana Field Thursday to play the American League East rival Tampa Bay Rays (26-17) at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York is 6-4 straight up (SU) in its last 10 games, which includes back-to-back victories vs. the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday-Wednesday after dropping the Monday opener following a 2-1 series loss to the Chicago White Sox this past weekend.
Tampa won both of a 2-game interleague series with the Miami Marlins Tuesday-Wednesday after losing 2 of 3 contests in Baltimore last week and is also 6-4 SU in its last 10 outings.
The Rays beat the Yankees 11-8 in last year’s season series and Tampa had a staggering plus-48 run differential in those meetings.
Yankees at Rays projected starters
LHP Nestor Cortes vs. LHP Ryan Yarbrough
Cortes is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 45 IP across 8 starts.
- Last start: Win, 7-5, at home vs. the Chicago White Sox Saturday with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Rays: 0-1 with a 2.79 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 0 BB and 10 K over 2 starts.
- vs. Rays on the current roster: 2.70 FIP with a .178/.259/.367 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 27.9 K% and 85.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 43 plate appearances (PA).
Yarbrough is 0-0 with a 4.20 ERA (15 IP, 7 ER), 18 H, 1 HR, 7 BB and 12 K in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: No-decision in Tampa’s 5-1 home loss to the Toronto Blue Jays May 14 with 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 2 K.
- 2021 vs. the Yankees: 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 2 BB and 14 K.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster: 4.01 FIP with a .257/.317/.420 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 13.5 K% and 84.8 mph EV in 96 PA.
Yankees at Rays odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Rays +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+140) | Rays +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Yankees at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 4, Rays 2
Money line
GIMME the YANKEES (-125) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Rays in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Cortes’ pitching peripherals support his impressive basic starts as he ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line and K%, according to Statcast.
N.Y.’s bats are also more productive vs. left-handed pitching than Tampa’s. The Yankees rank 2nd in wRC+ (123), 5th in wOBA (.333) and 4th in hard-hit rate (33.8%), per FanGraphs. The Rays have a 108 wRC+ (ranked 12th), .305 wOBA (15th) and a 28.5% hard-hit rate (19th).
Tampa’s bullpen has regressed year over year, mostly due to injuries, whereas New York’s bullpen is a top-5 unit. The Yankees’ relievers are 2nd in FIP (3.10) and 5th in home runs allowed per 9 innings (0.62). The Rays’ relievers are 20th in FIP (4.07) and 28th in home runs allowed per 9 (1.24).
BET 1 unit on the YANKEES (-125).
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Yankees -1.5 (+140) would have to be north of +160 to take a stab since N.Y. is 20-22 RL as a favorite while Tampa Bay is 8-2 RL as an underdog. Four of the last 8 Yankees-Rays meetings have been decided by a single run.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-130) because there’s a line freeze in the betting market, the Yankees are 7-11 O/U as road favorites, the Rays are 3-6-1 O/U as underdogs and Tropicana Field is a notorious pitcher-friendly ballpark and ranks 24th in run factor.
The Yankees ML is my favorite wager in this game but there’s a little value on the UNDER 7.5 (-130).
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]