The New York Yankees (61-50) visit the Kansas City Royals (48-62) Monday for the opener of a three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium. Let’s analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jameson Taillon is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. Taillon is 7-4 with a 4.04 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 in 107 IP through 21 starts.
- Allowed 1 ER in 6 1/3 IP against Kansas City June 24. Current Royals batters own an aggregate .535 OPS against him.
- Had a 5.59 ERA through June 24; owns a 2.20 ERA and 1.06 WHIP since.
- Has home/road splits that favor Yankee Stadium starts with a 3.22 ERA at home vs. 5.27 ERA on the road.
RHP Carlos Hernandez is the projected starter for the Royals. He is 3-1 with a 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, and 5.5 BB/9 through 39 1/3 IP across four starts and 12 relief appearances.
- Inserted into the Royals rotation after the All-Star break and has clocked three solid starts against one clunker since.
- Has avoided hard contact as a starter but has also yielded a mere .220 batting average on balls in play.
Yankees at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Royals +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (-115) | Royals +1.5 (-107)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Yankees 7, Royals 5
Money line (ML)
New York is coming off taking three of four games from Seattle in an important series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are 15-6 over their last 21 games. Pitching was a key component to the wins over the Mariners and has been in the club’s second-half surge. The Yanks own a 2.15 ERA over their last 10 games.
Kansas City lost two of three at St. Louis over the weekend and is returning home from a 3-6 road trip. The Royals went 6-1 in their last home stand from July 23-29.
Royals bats have been silent of late, logging a .564 OPS on their road trip, and were mostly silent the last time they faced Taillon in an 8-1 New York win June 24 at Yankee Stadium.
The visiting nine is the lean for Monday but not on a juice-drowned money line. AVOID.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Yankee bullpen is not in great shape heading into this series due to both injury and fatigue. Both the starting rotation and lineup are COVID-19 thin.
However, a surging Taillon and some healthy bats that are coming around of late make the Yanks a decent play on this prop.
BACK NEW YORK -1.5 (-115).
Over/Under (O/U)
A pair of fly-ballers on the bump plus hot and humid weather and a double-digit hitter’s breeze in the forecast equals an Over lean. So does an analysis of both teams’ Statcast quality-of-contact numbers which indicates upside in run production for both sides.
TAKE THE OVER 10.5 (-105).
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