The New York Yankees (22-8) head to Guaranteed Rate Field Thursday to start a 4-game series with the Chicago White Sox (15-14) at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York is 15-2 in its last 17 games, including 8-2 in the last 10 games. The Yankees own a 3-game win streak, recently sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays in a short 2-game home series.
Chicago is also 8-2 in the last 10. The only loss in its past 8 games was due to bullpen collapse in the top of the 9th – yielding 6 runs – in an 11-inning 12-9 defeat at home to the Cleveland Guardians.
The Yankees beat the White Sox 5-1 in last year’s season series with a plus-12 run differential.
Yankees at White Sox projected starters
RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Dylan Cease
Gil is making his 2022 debut for the Yankees Thursday. He was 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 29 1/3 IP over 6 starts in his rookie season of 2021.
Cease is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 12.4 K/9 in 34 IP across 6 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in 3-1 road win over the Boston Red Sox Saturday with 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 8 K.
- 2021 vs. the Yankees: 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 9 H, 4 BB and 12 K over 2 starts.
Yankees at White Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:55 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Yankees +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | White Sox -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-170) | White Sox -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Yankees at White Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 4, White Sox 3
Money line
Slight LEAN to the YANKEES (+125) only because the White Sox (-155) have been steamed up by a sharp line move and Cease looks like a Cy Young contender.
However, New York’s lineup lit up Cease last year and the Yankees have a 2-phase edge over the White Sox in hitting and relief pitching.
The Yankees are 2nd in wRC+ (117), 7th in wOBA (.322) and 4th in WAR (6.1), according to FanGraphs. The White Sox are 23rd in wRC+ (91), 25th in wOBA (.306) and 27th in WAR (1.2).
Also, New York’s bullpen ranks 1st in WAR (2.1) and 7th in xFIP (3.48) while Chicago’s bullpen ranks 21st in xFIP (3.91).
But I prefer the Under and New York’s RL more than YANKEES (+125).
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN YANKEES +1.5 (-170).
The White Sox are only 5-8 RL as home favorites and the Yankees’ only loss at the White sox last season was by 1 run.
Chicago’s bullpen has struggled to support the starters whereas New York’s bullpen has been the most reliable in baseball. Furthermore, New York’s lineup certainly has the sluggers to backdoor cover this RL.
LEAN YANKEES +1.5 (-170) since the Under is my favorite play in this game.
Over/Under
TAKE UNDER 7.5 (-105) since 4 of the 6 Yankees-White Sox meetings last year went Under the total and the presumed sharp side of the market is betting the Under. According to Pregame.com, roughly 80% of the cash is on the Under, but around 70% of the action is on the Over.
The money column of the betting splits is considered the sharper side since professional bettors wager more money than public bettors. This influx of money has caused oddsmakers to decrease the total from the 8-run opener.
Also, Cease is as elite as they come. He grades in the 91st percentile or better in K%, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected ERA, expected wOBA and expected slugging percentage, according to Statcast.
Gil is one of the Yankees’ best pitching prospects – he gave them solid outings in 2021. If Gil doesn’t have his best stuff Thursday, the bullpen can be counted on to keep the Yankees in this game.
BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).
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