The New York Yankees (28-9) face the Baltimore Orioles (14-24) in the finale of their 4-game series Thursday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
N.Y.’s 3-2 victory over Baltimore Wednesday extended the Yankees’ win streak to 4 games and their series-winning streak to 9. The Orioles have lost 6 consecutive games, which includes a 3-game sweep at the Detroit Tigers this past weekend.
Yankees at Orioles projected starters
LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. LHP Bruce Zimmermann
Montgomery is 0-1 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 35 1/3 IP across 7 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 3-2 loss at the Chicago White Sox Saturday with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Orioles: 0-0 with a 1.69 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 2 BB and 6 K over 2 starts.
- vs. Orioles on the current roster: 3.70 FIP with a .238/.296/.350 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 23.1 K% and 85.5 mph exit velocity (EV) in 121 plate appearances (PA).
Zimmermann is 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 across 36 1/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 3-0, at the Detroit Tigers Saturday with 6 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.
- 2022 vs. the Yankees: 0-1 with a 2.89 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 11 H, 3 BB and 11 K across 2 starts.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster: 4.80 FIP with a .332/.406/.585 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 22.7 K% and 91.4 mph EV in 66 PA.
Yankees at Orioles odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:53 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Yankees -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Orioles +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (-125) | Orioles +1.5 (+102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Yankees at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 7, Orioles 3
Money line
BET the YANKEES (-220) because they have a significant 3-phase edge over the Orioles. N.Y.’s lineup and bullpen are top-5 units and the Yankees hit left-handed pitching much better than Baltimore.
The Yankees are 5th in wRC+ (117), 7th in wOBA (.324) and 3rd in hard-hit rate (33.6%) against left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs. While the Orioles rank 28th in wRC+ (80), 27th in wOBA (.276) and 23rd in hard-hit rate (27.1%) against lefties.
Montgomery also has better advanced pitching numbers both on the year and against Thursday’s opponent than Zimmermann.
Montgomery’s contact, outside-the-zone swing and swinging-strike rates improved from his first to second start vs. the Orioles this season. Whereas Zimmermann’s contact, outside-the-zone swing and swinging-strike rates all worsened in his second start against the Yankees.
N.Y. owes Montgomery more wins since he only has 6 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA over his last 37 starts dating back to last season.
Zimmermann hasn’t given up any home runs to N.Y.’s lineup and that will probably change in his 3rd meeting with the Bronx Bombers this year.
RISK 1-1.25 units on the YANKEES (-220) instead of betting to win 1 unit because this is an expensive ML.
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN YANKEES -1.5 (-125) due to all of their aforementioned edges in this matchup and 6 of their last 7 wins have been by at least 2 runs. However, the Orioles are 11-5 RL as home underdogs so I prefer the Yankees ML.
Over/Under
PASS because N.Y.’s lineup never produces for Montgomery and the Yankees are 0-7 O/U in Montgomery’s 7 starts this season. N.Y. is also 6-11 O/U as a road favorite and Baltimore is 5-10-1 O/U as a home underdog.
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