The New York Mets (21-11) and Washington Nationals (11-21) close out a 3-game series at Nationals Park Thursday. First pitch is set for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Mets lead 4-2.
The Mets are a robust 12-6 across 18 road games.
The Nationals tallied an 8-3 victory Wednesday and have scored 6.18 runs per game over their last 11 contests.
Mets at Nationals projected starters
RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Joan Adon
Walker (0-0, 4.91 ERA) has notched a 1.36 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 11 IP over 3 starts.
- Posted a 4.47 ERA in 159 IP last season.
- Roughed up for 10 runs across 10 2/3 IP in his last 2 starts vs. Washington in 2021.
- Current Nats bats own a .911 OPS against him.
Adon (1-5, 6.99 ERA) is making his 7th start. He owns a 1.66 WHIP, 5.7 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 28 1/3 IP.
- Has allowed 3 earned runs or more in 5 of his 6 starts.
- Opened his 2022 season April 9 against these Mets and allowed 4 ER on 4 H and 4 BB in 4 1/3 IP.
Mets at Nationals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Nationals +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Run line (RL): Mets -1.5 (+102) | Nationals +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Mets at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 4, Mets 3
Money line
PASS — for now.
Walker has been a road struggler the last two seasons. Adon isn’t Juan Marichal, but he’s a gas-throwing 23-year-old with mid-rotation upside. Walks are a problem, but this Mets club walks vs. righties less than most of the teams he’s faced so far.
The back end of the Washington ‘pen is rested, and overall this is a Nats club that has deserved a better fate than its .344 winning percentage.
Perhaps the Mets are enough of a public darling to get this Washington money-line play into value territory (+135 or so).
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Run line/Against the spread
STEER CLEAR unless a Nationals +1.5 price comes in at -120 or better
Over/Under
A get-away day game with a pitcher’s breeze in the forecast puts a lean toward a lower-scoring game. Mix in a Washington bullpen with better underlying analytics than surface numbers.
BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-102).
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