It’s the final game of the season for the New York Mets (26-33) and Washington Nationals (25-34), Sunday. The first pitch is scheduled for 3:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Below, we analyze the Mets-Nationals MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Season series: Washington leads 5-4.
Playoff picture: Both teams failed to make the playoffs.
Mets at Nationals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Austin Voth
Lugo: 3-3 with a 3.82 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 35 1/3 IP over 15 G (6 GS).
- Last start: Win, 5-2, with 6 1/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K and 1 BB against the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday.
- Career vs. Nationals: 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 46 K and 16 BB in 49 IP over 24 G (4 GS).
- The current Nationals lineup’s slash line & stats vs. Lugo: .143/.197/.268 with 2 HR and 3 RBI allowed against 56 batters, according to dailybaseballdata.com.
Voth: 1-5 with a 6.25 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 44 2/3 IP over 10 GS.
- Last start: Win, 5-1, with 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 7 K and 1 BB against the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday.
- Career vs. Mets: 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 14 K and 7 BB in 15 2/3 IP over 4 G (3 GS).
- The current Mets lineup’s slash line & stats vs. Voth: .269/.321/.500 with 1 HR and 4 RBI given up against 16 batters, according to dailybaseballdata.com.
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Mets at Nationals: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Mets
- OF Michael Conforto (hamstring) out
- SS Andres Gimenez (oblique) out
Nationals
- 2B Starlin Castro (wrist) out
- RP Sean Doolittle (oblique) out
- OF Adam Eaton (finger) out
- 2B Howie Kendrick (hamstring) out
- SS Carter Kieboom (hand) out
Mets at Nationals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Mets 8, Nationals 5
Money line (ML)
The Nationals’ (+115) victory over the Mets Saturday eliminated New York from playoff contention. Look for the METS (-129) to at least close out the season with a win for the following reasons.
First, New York has an edge in the starting pitching matchup and has better bullpen numbers. Second, New York’s lineup is more reliable—first in batting average and OPS, 11th in runs scored per game and home runs hit—mainly because of the Nationals’ injury report. Third, the Mets are 12-5 in the last 17 meetings and that’s dating back to last year’s World Series Nationals team.
New to sports betting? You’d have to risk $129 on a Mets ticket for a $100 payout if they win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Nationals +1.5 (-143) have the best run line record as a home underdog (12-3 RL). Also, the Mets -1.5 (+120) are sub-.500 on the run line overall, in division games and as an away favorite.
Plus, the first three Mets-Nationals games in this series have been decided by a total four runs, including two one-run games. PASS ON THE RUN LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
I lean OVER 8.5 (-110) because these NL East games have been slugfests in 2020. The Nationals have the highest Over percentage in division games (63.9%) and the next two clubs are also NL East teams (Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins).
The Mets have a 19-18-1 Over/Under record in NL East games. Additionally, the Over is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings, and four of the last Mets-Nationals games have gone Over the total.
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