The New York Mets (25-31) are still clinging to slim playoff hopes and will kick off a series against the Washington Nationals (23-33) on Thursday. The first pitch is set for 6:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Below, we analyze the Mets-Nationals MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Mets at Nationals: Projected starting pitchers
LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Patrick Corbin
Peterson was dominant in his most recent start, with 10 strikeouts and just one earned run allowed in six innings vs Atlanta. Through nine appearances (eight starts), he owns a 3.80 ERA, but an uninspiring 36:23 K:BB in 42 2/3 innings.
- He allowed just one hit over five scoreless innings in a previous start against the Nationals. It will be tough to duplicate the feat, though, as the Washington offense ranks third in wRC+ vs LHP with the lowest K% against them.
- Peterson has appeared in five games on the road this season and has posted a 3.65 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings (6.2 K/9).
Corbin got roughed up in his last start when he allowed seven earned runs on 14 hits in six innings vs Miami. He has failed to live up to expectations this season, putting up a 4.76 ERA through 10 starts.
- This is the second straight year in which he has been much better at home than on the road. In five starts at Nationals Park, Corbin has a 3.16 ERA and a 36:5 K:BB in 31 1/3 innings.
- His fastball velocity is down almost two ticks from 2019, and he’s getting far fewer whiffs on his slider than he did the past two seasons. As a result, his K% is down to 21.8%, after he struck out 29.6% of opposing batters the past two seasons.
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Mets at Nationals: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Mets
- OF Jake Marisnick (hamstring) out
- RP Robert Gsellman (ribs) out
Nationals
- SS Trea Turner (undisclosed) questionable
- 2B Howie Kendrick (hamstring) out
- OF Adam Eaton (finger) out
- 3B Carter Kieboom (hand) out
- 2B Starlin Castro (wrist) out
Mets at Nationals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Nationals 6, Mets 4
Money line (ML)
- Mets (-106)
- Nationals (-106)
Peterson was great in his last start, but his overall skills to date tell a different story. Even with the Washington offense missing a couple of key pieces, they should have success this time around against the young lefty, though it would certainly help if Turner returns to the lineup.
Corbin hasn’t been as dominant as usual this season, but he’s been good at home again and is still pretty clearly the superior starter in this matchup. Look for the NATIONALS (-106) to come out on top.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Mets -1.5 (+140)
- Nationals +1.5 (-167)
Both pitchers have had a few excellent outings mixed in with a few clunkers. A case could be made for either team at -1.5 being a good value, but the preference here is the NATIONALS -1.5 (+170) or -2.5 (+260).
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 9 (-110)
- Under 9 (-110)
Neither pitcher has displayed skills that are all that strong, and both of these offenses have fared well all season against left-handed pitching. Both teams should put some runs on the board Thursday evening, so OVER 9 (-110) looks like the play.
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