The New York Mets (68-68) face the Washington Nationals (56-79) Sunday in the fourth game of their five-game series at Nationals Park with the first pitch scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Mets lead 10-6.
RHP Taijuan Walker is New York’s projected starter. He is 7-9 with a 3.89 ERA (134 1/3 IP, 58 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 24 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 3 K Aug. 25 against the San Francisco Giants.
- Walker is 1-1 with 4 ER on 13 H and 3 BB against 9 K through 13 1/3 IP covering two starts against Washington this season.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster (50 PA): 8.32 FIP with a .381 batting average, .502 wOBA, .582 expected slugging percentage, 8.0 K% and 89.5 mph exit velocity.
RHP Josiah Gray is on the hill for the Nationals. He is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA (40 IP, 21 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 seven starts and one relief appearance with Washington and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-4, with 4 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 4 K Monday against the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Gray was the No. 1-ranked prospect in the Dodgers’ farm system and was part of L.A.’s trade package for RHP Max Scherzer.
Mets at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Nationals +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+122) | Nationals +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Nationals 6, Mets 4
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Nationals (+110) because I like Washington’s run line and there are things to like about the Nationals in this spot.
However, the Nationals bullpen ranks in the basement of most advanced pitching categories in the second half of the year. Also, Washington’s money line is below my buy price of +140 so I’ll just load up on the Nationals to cover.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME 1 unit on the NATIONALS +1.5 (-150) as more of a fade against the Mets.
Walker’s pitching peripherals against active Nationals batters are atrocious and he has been awful following an All-Star campaign in the first half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Walker is 0-6 with a 6.81 ERA (2.66 ERA pre-All-Star break), 1.41 WHIP and 1.8 K/BB.
Furthermore, Walker is a lot more effective at home than on the road. He is 3-6 on the road with a 4.67 ERA compared to a 3.22 home mark.
On top of that, the Mets are 9-18 ATS as road favorites with a minus-29.6% return on investment and an average score of 4.6-4.5 while the Nationals are 20-17 ATS as home underdogs.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-130) for a tiny wager because the Nationals are 18-17-2 O/U as home underdogs and stack up well against the Mets. While New York is 17-11-3 O/U as a road favorite and the Mets can definitely get to Washington’s weak bullpen.
That said, the early-morning action report from Pregame.com indicated the presumed “sharp” money was on the Under and the public was betting the Over. Typically, it’s better in sports betting to follow the money rather than the crowd so I wouldn’t break the bank with an Over wager in this spot.
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