The New York Mets (11-12) and St. Louis Cardinals (17-12) meet Tuesday night for a 7:45 p.m. ET first pitch to continue a four-game set at Busch Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jacob deGrom is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 2-2 with a 0.51 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 15.2 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 in 35 IP over 5 starts. DeGrom enters this game having allowed just 10 base runners over his last 21 IP.
RHP Johan Oviedo is the projected starter for the Cardinals. Oviedo has a 2.79 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 9 2/3 IP over 2 games. He allowed 3R on 3 hits and a walk in his last start (Thursday vs. Philadelphia). Oviedo is regarded as one of the Cards’ top 10 prospects.
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Mets at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-115) | Cardinals +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Mets 5, Cardinals 3
Money line (ML)
The Cardinals took Monday’s season opener, 6-5, and have won five in a row.
Peg the Cardinals as being a couple of games or so overcooked with their win-loss record. Righty pitching brings out the Mets’ best platoon splits, and that advantage carries into the later innings in this series because the St. Louis bullpen leans heavily to the right side.
Speaking of bullpens: Batted-ball analytics do not match up at all with the similar surface numbers the Cards (3.83 ERA) and Mets (3.63 ERA) have produced to date. St. Louis relievers have benefited from a .244 BABIP and a low rate of fly balls posting as round-trippers (4.7%). New York relievers have suffered through a .312 BABIP and a low left-on-base rate of 61.9%.
Back the Mets up to -200. PASS on the current tag, but deGrom is worthy of a play on a price drop.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
New York is 6-6 in one-run games, but the price is attractive enough and the fade lean is becoming enough on the Cards to warrant BACKING THE METS -1.5 (-115).
Over/Under (O/U)
Mixed signals pop up in the analytics (lean against St. Louis pen, plays on the New York pen and the Cardinals offense). A slight overall lean on the OVER 6.5 (-110) is perhaps worth a partial-unit look.
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