The New York Mets (22-27) are in the City of Brotherly Love Thursday for the final matchup of a three-game set with the NL East-rival Philadelphia Phillies (24-24). The first pitch at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Phillies-Mets MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Tied 1-1.
Phillies at Mets: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Lugo: 2-3 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 27 1/3 IP over 13 games (4 starts).
- Last start: Loss, 3-2, with 5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 5 K and 1 BB at the Toronto Blue Jays (Sept. 12).
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-1 with a 3.40 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 55 K and 15 BB in 39 2/3 IP over 18 games (4 starts).
Nola: 5-3 with a 2.40 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 56 1/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: Win, 11-0, with 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 10 K and 0 BB at the Miami Marlins (Sept. 11).
- Career vs. Mets: 8-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 107 K and 29 BB in 90 IP over 15 starts.
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Phillies at Mets: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Mets
- RP Dellin Betances (lat) out
- OF Yoenis Cespedes (personal) opt-out
- 2B Jed Lowrie (knee) out
Phillies
- OF Jay Bruce (quad) out
- 1B Rhys Hoskins (elbow) out
- C J.T. Realmuto (hip) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Phillies at Mets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Phillies 4, Mets 3
Money line (ML)
The Mets (+110) beat Philadelphia (-121) 5-4 Wednesday with Jacob deGrom starting against Zack Wheeler in a battle of an ace and a No. 2 starter. Thursday, the Phillies’ (-121) ace tries to beat Lugo, who has become New York’s No. 2 starter.
Philadelphia holds a 6-3 edge in the season series and is currently the 7-seed in the National League playoff race. New York still has a fighting chance for the playoffs so we’re getting an all-in effort but Philadelphia has dominated them recently.
The Mets are 3-8 in the last 11 contests and 1-5 in the last six games in Philadelphia. New York roughed up Nola in the last meeting, Sept. 6, but Nola was 2-0 with four quality starts and only two earned runs in his previous four against the Mets.
That was in New York. Nola is going to bounce back in this one and the PHILLIES (-121) will pull out a close one.
New to sports betting? A $121 bet on the Phillies (-121) pays a $100 profit if Philadelphia beats New York.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The gambler in me says, Phillies -1.5 (+165) is a fat number and since we like Philadelphia in this spot, let’s go for the run line payout too. Maybe closer to the first pitch I’ll change my mind but at the moment I am feeling a nail-biter. PASS ON THE RUN LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 7.5 (-110) is crazy low for a couple of reasons. The Under is 5-2 in the last seven games in Philadelphia and 3-0-1 in Lugo’s last four starts overall.
Both lineups are top-10 in several categories and Philadelphia’s bullpen is awful. BetMGM knows that but has still priced the total low to get Over action. Don’t fall for it, TAKE UNDER 7.5 (-110).
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