The New York Mets (12-14) and Miami Marlins (9-9) wraps up a four-game series Thursday at Marlins Park with a 6:10 p.m. ET first pitch. We analyze the Mets-Marlins MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Mets at Marlins: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Seth Lugo vs. LHP Daniel Castano
Lugo steps into the rotation in place of the ineffective LHP Steven Matz, although it’s uncertain how deep Lugo will be able to go into games initially.
- Lugo has posted a 1-2 record, 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with two walks, 11 strikeouts and three saves across 10 1/3 innings in nine relief appearances.
- The plan is for Lugo to be stretched out over time and be a permanent fixture in the rotation, so do not expect this to simply be an emergency start or band-aid.
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Castano will make his third career start. He is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with three walks, six strikeouts and three homers allowed in 10 1/3 innings over his first two appearances this season.
- This will actually be Castano’s second appearance against New York, as he allowed five runs – four earned – with five hits, a walk and four strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings in a loss at Citi Field on Aug. 8 in his Major League debut.
- In that outing vs. NYM, Castano threw 50 of his 76 pitches for strikes, and he threw first-pitch strikes to 13 of the 20 batters he faced.
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Mets at Marlins: Key injuries
(List of injuries around the league)
Mets
- OF Yoenis Cespedes (personal) opted out of the season
- OF Jake Marisnick (hamstring) out
- 2B Eduardo Nunez (knee) out
Marlins
- 1B Garrett Cooper (COVID-19) out
- 3B Sean Rodriguez (COVID-19) out
- RP Pat Venditte (oblique) out
Mets at Marlins: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Thursday at 1:40 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Mets 8, Marlins 4
Moneyline (ML)
The Mets (-176) look to complete the four-game sweep in Miami. They have outscored the Marlins (+155) by a 24-10 count through three games of the set. It will be interesting to see how Lugo adjusts to his new job, but he should be fine. They have faced Castano before, and they handled him well. However, the Mets are kinda expensive, so AVOID.
New to sports betting? A winning $17.60 bet on Mets (-176) returns a profit of $10.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Look to the METS (-1.5, -115) to cover the run line and skedaddle out of Miami with a four-game sweep. It isn’t so much that I trust Lugo, but bet against Castano. Plus, New York is averaging 8.0 runs per game in this series, and they have won by two or more runs in each of their five wins in seven tries against the Marlins (+1.5, -106) this season.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 9.5 (-106) has hit in the first three in this series, so why not again? We have a rookie in his third career start against a hot offense, while we have a closer moving to the rotation, which could make for an adventure. The over is 6-2 in the past eight for Miami, too, mainly because their pitching staff has been knocked around. They’re allowing 6.0 runs per game across the past 10.
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