The New York Mets (10-14) ended a three-game losing streak Monday with an 11-4 win at the Miami Marlins (9-7). The two teams will resume their four-game series Tuesday, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Marlins Park. We analyze the Mets-Marlins betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Mets at Marlins: Projected starting pitchers
LHP David Peterson vs. RHP Humberto Mejia
Peterson dealt with shoulder soreness during his last start, but he’s been cleared to take the mound Tuesday. He is currently sporting a 2.91 ERA through four starts, with 17 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings.
- Peterson had never pitched above Double-A prior to this season. He made 24 starts at that level in 2019, where he recorded a 4.19 ERA. The underlying numbers were better, though, and he recorded 122 strikeouts in 116 innings (9.5 K/9).
- He already faced the Marlins once, when he allowed two earned runs in five innings, with three strikeouts and three walks. He has struck out three batters apiece in three of his four starts, while whiffing eight against the Boston Red Sox in the other outing.
Mejia has made one start this season, and it was also against the Mets. It took him 67 pitches to get through 2 1/3 innings, though he allowed just one earned run, and punched out six batters.
- He had never pitched above Class A heading into the 2020 season. Across two levels of Class A in 2019, Mejia posted a 2.29 ERA in 90 1/3 innings, with 89 strikeouts (8.9 K/9) and just six homers allowed.
- Mejia relied heavily on his four-seam fastball in his first outing, and generated eight swings and missed out of the 42 he threw. The secondary stuff was lacking, as he got one whiff combined from the curve, slider and changeup (25 thrown).
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Mets at Marlins: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Mets
- OF Yoenis Cespedes (COVID concerns) out for season
- SP Jacob deGrom (neck) probable Wednesday
- OF Jake Marisnick (hamstring) out
Marlins
- C Jorge Alfaro (illness) out
- 1B Garrett Cooper (illness) out
- OF Corey Dickerson (bereavement list) probable
- SS Miguel Rojas (illness) questionable
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Mets at Marlins: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:14 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Mets 7, Marlins 4
Moneyline (ML)
- Mets (-182)
- Marlins (+160)
The Mets offense currently ranks third in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching, and it will face a pitcher Tuesday who has made just one career appearance above Class-A. After getting a look at him earlier in the month, and getting hot-hitting 2B Robinson Cano back in the fold, look for New York to put some runs on the board against the 23-year-old hurler.
Peterson hasn’t pitched quite as well as his ERA would suggest, and even with a shaky defense behind him, has benefited from a .250 BABIP. The Marlins boast the fourth highest K% and third lowest OPS vs lefties on the year, though, so he should deliver another pretty solid outing. The price is fairly steep, but the METS (-182) are still the side to take in this one.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Mets -1.5 (-121)
- Marlins +1.5 (+100)
After a pretty quiet weekend, the New York bats exploded for 11 runs Monday night, and they should have another strong performance Tuesday. The Mets get to the inexperienced Mejia, who isn’t likely to work very deep into the game before turning it over to a shaky bullpen. The METS -1.5 (-121) are a good bet to win by multiple runs for the second day in a row.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 9.5 (-110)
- Under 9.5 (-110)
As noted above, the Mets could be poised for another offensive explosion. On the other side, Peterson should be able to tame Miami’s bats, but his skills to date suggest he won’t completely shut them down. A small play on the OVER 9.5 (-110) is the recommendation here.
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