The New York Mets (60-61) and Los Angeles Dodgers (76-46) continue a four-game set Friday with a 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Dodger Stadium. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Carlos Carrasco is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He has allowed 13 ER on 18 H and 3 BB with 12 K through 11 1/3 IP spanning four starts in 2021.
- Facing the Dodgers in a second straight start. Allowed 6 ER on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 3 across 2 IP Sunday.
- Owns a 3.83 career ERA and a 4.63 mark over the last three years.
RHP Walker Buehler is the projected starter for the Dodgers. He is 12-2 with a 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 154 2/3 IP over 24 starts.
- Has benefited from generous rates around the margins (.237 batting average on balls in play, 85.0% left-on-base rate, 9.5% home run/fly ball). Expected-ERA measures peg Buehler in the 3.60-3.75 range.
- Faced these Mets Saturday and allowed 1 run on 4 H and 3 BB with 10 K across 7 IP.
- Hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in a single start since July 17 and owns a 1.08 ERA over that span (five starts).
- Has a 2.37 ERA and 0.91 WHIP at Dodger Stadium since 2019.
Mets at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Dodgers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Prediction
Dodgers 6, Mets 3
Money line (ML)
With Thursday’s 4-1 loss in the series opener against Los Angeles, New York is just 5-13 this month. The Mets offense has been shaky most of the season but it has been woeful this month. New York went into this series slashing all of .223/.296/.347 (.643 OPS) in August.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, have started to live up to the offensive prowess they’ve displayed the last few years. Over 16 games in August, L.A. has batted .262/.350/.475 (.824). The Dodgers scored 5.7 runs per game over that stretch and the bats were the plus side in an equation that produced 13 wins against three losses.
Los Angeles is 9-2 over its last 11 games in Chavez Ravine and the Dodgers are 9-3 over their last 12 home games against the Mets.
As good as L.A. has been, its win percentage doesn’t adequately reflect its impressive run differential of plus-1.7 per game. In fact, Los Angeles has scored the most runs in the NL this year while allowing the fewest per game in MLB.
That’s something the Dodgers are trying to do for a fourth consecutive season (they would be the first club since the New York Yankees from 1936-39 to do so).
Don’t be put off by the tag here. The DODGERS (-250) come at a fair price and in this case, it is one that can be leveraged for profit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Dodgers “bullpen’d” Thursday’s game, but usage and pitch counts came out such that L.A. is still in decent shape for Friday.
That gives the home nine much the better starter/bullpen combo and the Los Angeles ‘pen leads MLB in ground-ball percentage (48.4%). That may factor as a key advantage on a humid, breeze-out night at Dodger Stadium.
TAKE THE DODGERS -1.5 (-120).
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS on a well-made number and with Carrasco (and any long relief behind him) being a wild card.
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