The New York Mets (39-21) meet the Los Angeles Angels (28-32) Saturday for the 2nd of their 3-game interleague set at Angel Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 10:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
N.Y. took the series opener 7-3 Friday with standout performances from Mets’ 1st- and 2nd-hitters CF Brandon Nimmo and LF Mark Canha, who combined to hit 4-for-8 with 1 home run, 2 doubles and 6 RBIs. Friday’s Mets-Angels meeting was their 1st of the season.
Mets at Angels projected starters
RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen
Carrasco is 7-1 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 64 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: Win, 11-5, Monday at the San Diego Padres with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 10 K.
Lorenzen is 5-3 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 53 2/3 IP across 9 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 7-2, Saturday at the Philadelphia Phillies with 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 5 BB and 9 K.
Mets at Angels odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Angels +115 (bet $110 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+120) | Angels +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: -105)
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Mets at Angels picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Angels 3
Money line
BET the METS (-140).
The Mets have a 3-phase edge over the Angels (+115) in starters, relief pitching and hitting.
Carrasco’s basic numbers and pitching peripherals are much stronger than Lorenzen’s, and Carrasco has much better advanced pitching stats vs. L.A. than Lorenzen against N.Y.
Carrasco has a .174/.255/.349 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line and 26.7 K% in 30 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Angels batters, per Statcast.
Whereas Lorenzen has a .347/.430/.544 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line and 12.5 K% in 40 PA vs. current Mets hitters.
Also, N.Y.’s lineup is better than L.A. vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (119-107), wOBA (.333-316) and BB/K rate (0.41-0.31), per FanGraphs.
Finally, these teams are trending in opposite directions. L.A. is 1-9 overall in their last 10 games and just fired its manager while N.Y. is atop the NL East by 6.5 games without its 2 aces.
BET the METS (-140).
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN to the METS -1.5 (+120) because this isn’t a big enough payout for a “sprinkle” on top of N.Y.’s ML.
But, the Mets have a 3-phase edge and 26-18 RL as favorites while the Angels +1.5 (-105) are just 10-10 RL as underdogs.
LEAN METS -1.5 (+120).
Over/Under
PASS.
Apparently, the sharp money is hitting the Over 8.5 (-130), but I can not reverse engineer the line movement and don’t have a strong enough opinion on the total.
If anything, I’d “lean” Over 8.5 (-130) because Lorenzen and Carrasco are both due for regression, and both lineups have been productive vs. right-handed pitching.
PASS.
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