The New York Mets (50-30) and Cincinnati Reds (27-52) meet Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET to continue a 4-game series at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: New York leads 1-0 after Monday’s 7-4 win.
The Mets’ 7 runs marked their most in a game since June 17. From June 18-July 3, New York clocked a mere .637 OPS, but after Monday’s holiday affair the ball club is 3-1 in its last 4 games.
The Reds have lost 5 of their last 6. They’ve scored just 3.33 runs per game on a .620 OPS in those 6 games. At home, Cincinnati has struggled mightily of late. The Reds are 3-14 with a 6.08 ERA in their last 17 games along the banks of the Ohio River.
Mets at Reds projected starters
RHP Max Scherzer vs. LHP Nick Lodolo
Scherzer (5-1, 2.54 ERA) is tabbed for a return from the IL (oblique). He has a 0.95 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 49 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
- Reports are the veteran right-hander is targeting about 90 pitches over 6 IP in this outing.
- Surrendered 4R on 7 H and 2 BB with 14 K in 8 IP in 2 rehab starts with Double-A Binghamton.
- Current Cincinnati batters own a whiff-heavy .537 OPS against him.
Lodolo (1-2, 5.52 ERA) is making his 4th start of his rookie season. He has a 1.57 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 14 2/3 IP.
- Is also coming off the IL (back strain). Has not pitched in the majors since April 24.
- Logged a 5.54 ERA in 13 rehab innings, but was solid in his last 3 efforts on the farm.
Mets at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 10:16 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Reds +170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL): Mets -1.5 (-130) | Reds +1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Mets at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Reds 3
Money line
The juice is loose: PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread
The bullpens figure to loom large in this one. Cincinnati owns a Boeing 7.64 ERA over the last 30 days, but the play is on the Reds being essentially hard-to-repeat bad. And on the Mets being a bit overcooked overall.
BACK THE REDS +1.5 (+105).
Over/Under
Hot and humid (and likely wind blowing out) in Cincinnati mixed with some pitching uncertainly with a couple IL returnees could make for a high total.
One of those pitchers, however, is Scherzer. Add in some analytics that peg both offenses as perhaps too far out over their skis (mostly due to some high hit rates on balls in play in high-leverage situations), and there is ROOM FOR PROFIT ON THE UNDER 9.5 (-135).
A 25-cent take here doesn’t fit my eye. Consider a partial-unit play unless you can get the Under 9.5 at -125 or better.
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