The New York Mets (48-42) travel to Great American Ball Park Monday to start a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds (48-45). First pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York won just three of its last seven games in back-to-back home and away series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Mets snapped a three-game losing skid with a 7-6 road win Sunday.
Cincy was swept in a three-game home set against the Milwaukee Brewers this past weekend. The Reds previously won three of four on the road against Milwaukee entering the All-Star Break.
Season series: Tied 0-0.
RHP Jerad Eickhoff is on the mound for the Mets. He is 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 17 H, 4 BB and 6 K across two starts and one relief appearance.
- Last start: Loss, 8-4, with 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K at the Washington Nationals June 28.
- Eickhoff gave up two earned runs on six hits with no walks or strikeouts in 2 2/3 innings of bullpen duty in New York’s 6-5 loss to the Pirates last Sunday.
RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez is Cincinnati’s projected starter. He is 4-3 with a 4.29 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 over nine starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 0 K in Cincy’s 4-3 victory at the Brewers July 10.
- 2021 home stats: 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 1.8 K/BB rate and 5 home runs allowed in three starts.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Mets at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+145) | Reds +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Reds 8, Mets 5
Money line (ML)
The play is to BET 1 unit on the REDS (-115) because New York’s bullpen has been bad this month, Cincy outscores New York by more than a full run per nine innings against right-handed pitching and the Mets struggle on the road.
New York’s bullpen is dead-last in WAR this month and in the bottom-10 of several advanced pitching metrics including xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and home runs allowed per nine innings in July.
Also, Gutiérrez’s biggest flaw through his rookie seasons is giving up home runs—especially at home—but the Mets are 25th in home runs, 22nd in hard-hit rate and 21st in home run to fly-ball rate this year.
Furthermore, the Mets are just 20-28 in away games and their lineup ranks either 18th or 19th in wRC+, wOBA and OPS on the road.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds -1.5 (+155) alternate run line because I’m on Cincy’s money line and very much down on New York’s pitching staff.
That said, prior to this month, New York’s bullpen was one of the best units in the majors whereas Cincy’s bullpen has been awful the whole year.
Plus, the Mets are 16-8 ATS as road ‘dogs this season and the Reds are 14-21 ATS as home favorites.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over because one starter is a fringe rotation guy, the other is a rookie and both bullpens have been raked lately.
However, we’d be getting to the party too late by betting the Over at this price since this game opened with a 9.5-run total before the market steamed it up.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]