The New York Mets (73-77) and Boston Red Sox (86-65) open a brief two-game series Tuesday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Mets RHP Marcus Stroman (9-12, 2.88 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 169 IP.
- Has recorded a sub-3.00 ERA both on the road and at home this season, although the skills haven’t been quite as good across his 16 road starts. He has a 2.81 ERA and 7.8 K/9 and benefited from a .258 BABIP on the road.
- He has always been good at suppressing homers and sports an excellent 0.7 HR/9 on the season. He hasn’t allowed a single home run over his last five starts.
Red Sox LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (11-8, 5.00 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 142 1/3 IP.
- Has struggled to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in 11 home starts this season, however his 65/15 K/BB in 52 2/3 IP is very strong and he doesn’t have a history of struggling at Fenway, so we’ll chalk this up to a small sample.
- Had a stretch in which he recorded double digit swinging strikes in 9 of 11 starts, but followed that up by reaching the mark just once in his last six tries.
Mets at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Red Sox -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-170) | Red Sox -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Mets 4
Money line (ML)
The Mets have lost eight of their last 11 games and are pretty much eliminated from playoff contention. Boston just completed a weekend sweep of the Baltimore Orioles to extend its win streak to five games and it looks well on its way to locking down a wild card spot.
The Red Sox are 47-29 at home this season and have scored a league-best 5.83 runs per game at home. They also rank top five in both OPS and wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
The RED SOX (-145) should win their sixth in a row Tuesday.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Stroman has been pitching well all season, and despite the tough matchup, he should be able to keep his team close. There’s not enough value on either side of this line so PASS on the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Rodriguez has pitched better than his ERA would suggest, as all of the ERA estimators show he’s deserving of a sub-4.00 ERA. He has been victimized by a .358 BABIP and 67.1% LOB% that have inflated his numbers.
On the other side, Stroman has allowed more than 3 ER just three times all year, and never more than 5 ER in an outing. The Boston offense had a big weekend against Baltimore, but they’re not likely to have a huge day in this one.
A small play on UNDER 9.5 (-120) is the call.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]