The New York Mets (3-5) face the Atlanta Braves (5-3) Saturday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Truist Park. We analyze the Mets-Braves betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
New York blew an 8-2 lead Friday as Atlanta planted five runs in the bottom of the eighth to eke out an 11-10 victory. That Mets bullpen … whew, it’s gross.
Mets at Braves: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Michael Wacha at RHP Touki Toussaint
Wacha’s opening gem of 5-plus innings with one run and four strikeouts Monday at the Boston Red Sox looked more like his 2018 self (3.20 ERA) than his 2017 (4.13) and 2019 (4.76) incarnations. In subsequent, tumultuous, often injury-riddled seasons, the righty has fallen short of the K-per-inning dominance he flashed in his 2013 debut stint.
- Still, in his first start of the year, his early average four-seam-fastball velocity (94.4 mph) is up 1 mph from last year.
- In two starts with the St. Louis Cardinals last year, Wacha spun a 2.45 ERA at what was then known as SunTrust Park.
Joining the rotation after Mike Foltynewicz was designated for assignment, Toussaint has been equally strikeout-happy (24.7 K%) and control-challenged (14.3 BB%), sinking him to a 5.52 ERA across 73 1/3 MLB innings.
- He at least prefers pitching in Atlanta, with his 4.31 home ERA dwarfing his 6.95 figure elsewhere.
- Lefty batters have given him trouble, though, tagging him for a .294 batting average.
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Mets at Braves: Key injuries
Visit sportsdata.usatoday.com to track all MLB injuries leading up to game time.
Mets
- 2B Jed Lowrie (knee) out
- OF Jake Marisnick (hamstring) out
- RP Robert Gsellman (triceps) out
Braves
- 2B Ozzie Albies (wrist) questionable
- OF Nick Markakis (conditioning) out
- RP Will Smith (COVID-19) out
Mets at Braves: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Braves 6, Mets 5
Moneyline (ML)
- Mets +110
- Braves -121
The Mets are 2-1 on the road but 3-5 overall. Atlanta is 3-0 at home so far, hence why they’re the favorite.
Playing on the side of the more experienced Wacha could justify a dart throw on the Mets, but given the better return on investment and the Braves’ strong bats, I’ll stay the course and BET the BRAVES (-121), which still offers enough of a profit.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Braves (-121) to win would return a profit of $8.26.
Run Line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Mets +1.5 (-182)
- Braves -1.5 (+150)
I’m not a fan of either of these lines, given that Wacha could slip against a Braves lineup that ranks fourth against righties so far with a .353 wOBA (150-plus plate appearances). PASS on the Run Line.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 10 (-110)
- Under 10 (-110)
The Braves are 4-4 on the Over/Under this year. The Mets are 3-5.
The two sides cleared the Over by a mile Friday, and I’d be more willing to take a shot on this coin flip if Albies (wrist) returns for the Braves.
Given the pitchers involved, if you’re going to take the 50-50 shot, I’ll nudge to BET the OVER 10 (-110).
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