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The New York Liberty (24-6) and the Las Vegas Aces (27-3) resume the regular season Thursday at Michelob Ultra Arena at Mandalay Bay. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Liberty vs. Aces odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
The Liberty throttled the Aces 99-61 in Brooklyn Aug. 6, and posted a resounding 82-63 win in Las Vegas Tuesday to take the Commissioner’s Cup. Officially, the result was not applied to the regular-season standings, but unofficially it was the first home loss for Las Vegas this season.
The Liberty have won 6 straight regular-season games and the Commissioner’s Cup final, while covering 5 consecutive outings. That includes the outright win in Vegas Tuesday as 7.5-point underdogs. The Under is on a 6-1 run for New York, including the past 2 meetings with Las Vegas.
The Aces topped the Liberty 98-81 back on June 29, covering as 6.5-point home favorites as the Over (176) cashed, but New York has won and covered 2 in a row as an underdog in the head-to-head series, cashing the Under in each game.
The Liberty held the Aces to just 62.0 points per game (PPG) in those pair of losses, well below the Las Vegas’ league-leading 94.0 PPG.
Liberty at Aces odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:01 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Liberty +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Aces -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Liberty +6.5 (-105) | Aces -6.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 174.5 (O: -110) | U: -110)
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Liberty at Aces picks and predictions
Prediction
Aces 89, Liberty 84
Moneyline
It’s rather tempting to take the Liberty (+220), and that’s where the value is, should you opt to make a moneyline play.
However, I expect Las Vegas (-275) to bounce back and finally solve New York. Am I willing to put up nearly 2.75 times my initial investment? No, and you shouldn’t either.
PASS.
Against the spread
NEW YORK +6.5 (-105) has not only beaten Vegas twice in the past 12 days, the Liberty bludgeoned the Aces by an average of 28.5 PPG. There is little reason to believe the Aces are suddenly going to snap back into form when they’ve been dominated in those 2 games.
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Over/Under
The UNDER 174.5 (-110) is the lean in this showdown rematch on The Strip.
The past 2 victories by New York in this series were Under results. The Under is 6-1 in the past 7 games overall for the Liberty, while going 4-1 in the previous 5 games on the road. The Under has cashed in 5 in a row against Western Conference foes, too.
For the Aces, while the Over is 6-2-1 in the past 9 against teams with a winning record, the Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 against the East, including the previous 2 outings vs. the Liberty.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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