The 4-seed New York Knicks (1-1) head to the Big Peach Friday for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference First Round playoff series with the 5-seed Atlanta Hawks (1-1). Tip-off at State Farm Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Knicks-Hawks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
New York rallied back from a double-digit deficit to beat Atlanta in Game 2 101-92 Wednesday. Derrick Rose carried a struggling Knicks offense scoring a team-high 26 points with 4 rebounds and 4 assists.
Trae Young balled out in Madison Square Garden in front of a raucous New York crowd scoring a game-high 30 points on 11-of-20 shooting with 7 assists.
Knicks at Hawks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Knicks +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Hawks -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Knicks +5 (-110) | Hawks -5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 211.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Knicks at Hawks: Key injuries
Knicks
- C Nerlens Noel (ankle) questionable
- C Mitchell Robinson (foot) out
Knicks
- SG Cam Reddish (Achilles) out
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Knicks at Hawks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Knicks 114, Hawks 110
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight lean to the Knicks (+165) because I like New York plus the points and could in-game bet the Knicks after getting an answer on a question I have about the Hawks’ “home-court advantage”.
The Hawks have one of the worst home-court advantages in the Association, and there’s a good chance a lot of Knicks fans in the Atlanta area, or even the Tri-state area, are going to show up and make their presence known.
Either way, the Knicks are getting a good price for these teams being fairly equal in the box score and, if anything, I’d give New York the edge.
It feels like the market is robotically betting the Hawks at home in Game 3 because this series feels like it’s going seven.
That being said, New York plus the points is the much wiser bet in Knicks-Hawks.
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET the KNICKS +5 (-110) for 1 unit because there are not five points of difference between these sides, and the public has made more money betting New York than the “sharps” have fading it.
Atlanta has a slightly higher FTA/FG rate and slightly lower turnover rate, but the Hawks have more turnovers and fewer free-throw attempts because they are getting crushed on the glass as New York’s offensive rebounding rate nearly doubles Atlanta’s.
Also, according to Pregame.com, more money is on the Hawks -5 (-110) but more bets are on the Knicks to cover.
Typically, the money column of the market is considered the “sharps,” and the bets placed column is the “average Joe”.
Part of the reason the Knicks have the best ATS record in the league (46-27-1 ATS) is that the market (propelled by the “sharps”) consistently fades them and makes New York cheap to invest in for once.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 211.5 (-110) for a one-third unit because I think Atlanta’s role players have a better shooting night in Game 3.
But, if that happens I could see the Hawks getting lazy on D, and New York had the third-highest 3-point percentage in the regular season.
This could also be used in the section above as part of my argument as to why Knicks +5 (-110) is a good bet.
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