The New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning open the Eastern Conference Finals with Game 1 of their best-of-seven series Monday at 8 p.m. ET at Rogers Place in Edmonton. We analyze the Islanders-Lightning NHL betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Islanders vs. Lightning: Projected starting goalies
Thomas Greiss vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy
It’s impossible to envision a scenario where head coach Barry Trotz goes back to Semyon Varlamov for Game 1. He rolled the dice on Greiss in the decisive Game 7 against the Philadelphia Flyers and the German-born backstop turned aside all 16 shots he faced in the 4-0 series clinching win. He won two games in the Philly series, going 2-0 with a 1.08 goals-against average and .960 in the series.
Vasilevskiy helped the Lightning to four consecutive victories against the Boston Bruins after they dropped Game 1 by a 3-2 count. The Vezina Trophy finalist went 4-1 with a 1.77 GAA and .936 SV%. A hot goaltender is what it takes to get deep into the Stanley Cup playoffs, so here the Lightning are. The last time he saw the Islanders was back on Feb. 8 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, stopping 17 of 18 shots in a 3-1 win. He and the Lightning were crushed 5-2 on the Island, as he allowed four goals on 25 shots back on Nov. 1, although that feels like years ago at this point.
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Islanders vs. Lightning: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Monday at 7:45 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Lightning 3, Islanders 2
Moneyline (ML)
The LIGHTNING (-154) are expected to vanquish the Islanders (+130) in this series. They’re moderate favorites and not too chalky in the series opener. New York showed grit and determination, ousting the No. 1 seed in the East against Philadelphia. However, the Lightning present new challenges, especially in the opposing goal. Vasilevskiy is a beast, and he is the difference here, as the Isles turn to a guy who will be making just his fourth appearance since the restart.
New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the Lightning returns a profit of $6.49, while a $10 bet on the Islanders would fetch a profit of $13.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
The Lightning (-1.5, +190) are a tempting play, as you can nearly double up if they win by two or more goals. However, I like to be a bit frugal early on in a series, especially in the opening game, getting a little bit of a sample size first before I delve into more bets. I’d go lightly on the Lightning on the moneyline, but skip the puck line play for now. AVOID.
Over/Under (O/U)
O/U 5 (over -115, under -106) is what’s on the board, but I don’t like playing the under on a flat five line. In addition, I am looking for exactly five goals in the series opener. I expect the scoring to be at a premium in Game 1, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 2-2 game going into overtime before a winner is decided. As such, AVOID playing the total, too. However, if I had a lean, it would be under.
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