New York City FC (13 wins, 10 losses, 6 draws) welcomes FC Cincinnati (9-8-11) to Citi Field Wednesday. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati odds and lines, and make our best MLS bets, picks and predictions.
FC Cincinnati’s win Saturday over Charlotte snapped a 3-game draw streak. Cincinnati is in playoff position, tied with New England for 7th, but, if the season ended today, they would be out due to their -1 goal differential.
FCC has drawn 9 of their last 12 matches. They’re led by star F Brandon Vazquez, who has 16 goals on the season. Fellow All-Star M Luciano Acosta leads the team with 10 assists. FCC has had just 2 clean sheets since May 7.
As for New York City FC, they have dropped off a cliff as of late. They have lost 6 of their last 7 matches. The absence of 23-year-old F Valentín Castellanos who is now playing with La Liga side Girona, has been brutal for NYCFC.
He had 13 goals in 17 starts. No one has gotten close to replacing him and their offense has struggled, scoring just 2 goals in their last 3 games. NYCFC has fallen to 4th in the conference.
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New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati odds, lines, picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:04 p.m. ET.
- Money line: New York City FC -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | FC Cincinnati +320 (bet $100 to win $320) | Draw +300
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -175 | U: +135)
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Prediction
FC Cincinnati 2, New York City FC 2
Money line (ML)
LEAN DRAW (+300).
Both of my plays in this game are going to be leans, not because of my confidence here, but because of the value.
FCC has played up to and down to the level of their competition. They got away with a win against Charlotte, a team that has been awful on the road. They still only had .3 more expected goals. In all but 3 matches in their last 12 draws, they have been within 1 expected goal on their opponent.
Similarly, NYCFC has struggled immensely of late and may not have that home-field edge fans are used to. They’ve lost 2 straight home games, both to non-playoff teams in the East.
That’s cause for concern enough, and with FCC having been a drawing machine as of late, I’ll play the draw for a small unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
LEAN OVER 2.5 (-175).
The value makes this tough to get behind, but the reasoning is undoubtedly there. NYCFC has gone over this in 6 of their last 7 matches. FCC has gone over this in 4 of their last 6.
They’ve been among the most high-paced teams in the league. Both teams sit top 6 in shots on target and top 5 in shooting percentage, so there should be a plethora of attacking opportunities.
FCC is also tied for the 3rd-most goals allowed in the East and NYCFC has allowed at least 2 goals in 3 straight games.
Combine it all, and I’ll play the over for a unit at this value despite the odds.
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