After what has felt like the longest NFL offseason since I have been alive, we have finally reached game week. The best thing about game week is that we can turn our attention toward football. The Cleveland Browns have not won a season opener since 2004 and they have a distressing 1-21-1 record since their return to the NFL in 1999.
It is safe to say that the 2022 opener looms rather large for a multitude of reasons.
One aspect of the game that leaves the Browns at a potential disadvantage is the Carolina Panthers offense being somewhat of an unknown. During the offseason, they hired Ben McAdoo as their new Offensive Coordinator and then traded for QB Baker Mayfield. This is one of those instances where there isn’t a lot for the Browns to reference when attempting to get a feel for what a McAdoo/Mayfield offense will look like.
Update: Stefanski noted the unknowns in his press conference on Wednesday:
#Browns Kevin Stefanski: Carolina offense has little bit of unknown for us with new OC Ben McAdoo. That's how Week 1 works.
— Scott Petrak ct (@ScottPetrak) September 7, 2022
The Browns know Mayfield well and during his time in Cleveland, Head Coach Kevin Stefanski did a good job of making things as easy as possible for the young quarterback.
Stefanski used an under-center, run-the-ball, play-action structure with Mayfield. The heavier personnel, tight formations, and elite run game he deployed aided in limiting Mayfield’s workload and playing to his strengths.
In 2020 and 2021, the Browns ranked bottom-five in single-back formations while also ranking bottom-three in plays with at least three receivers, staying in the low 40% range in both years.
Furthermore, The Browns ranked 32nd and 29th in 2020 and 2021, respectively, in passing rate while ahead in games, as well as top-six in run rate on first down. These aspects of Stefanski’s offense helped get the most out of Mayfield while alleviating complex progressions, pocket management and a high volume of passing.
McAdoo’s past offensive style is dissimilar to Stefanski’s starting with personnel disposition. In three of his four seasons as the Giants offensive coordinator or head coach, McAdoo’s offense used three-plus receivers on at least 80% of snaps and even led the league in 2016 at 94%. In 2017, that figure fell to 62% most likely to a rash of injuries to his wide receiver room.
McAdoo has shown the propensity to work from the shotgun, spread things out, and attack the short to intermediate areas of the field. McAdoo also hasn’t been known to use play-action much. From 2015 to 2017, McAdoo’s play-action rates were 17% (23rd), 15% (29th), and 21% (21st). His offenses have relied on the quarterback’s ability to be good in the true dropback pass game. This is distinctly different than Stefanski’s system.
So, what will the 2022 Panthers offense look like? A couple of things could be happening here. McAdoo could deploy an offense that looks nothing like what he has run in the past or they may lean on Mayfield to be a considerably better drop-back passer than he has shown thus far in his career.
The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle. McAdoo will certainly modify things to help his new quarterback, but it is unlikely he will morph two very different styles into an offense that entirely accommodates Mayfield. McAdoo comes from the Mike McCarthy coaching tree and ran a similar variation of McCarthy’s offense during his time in New York.
So, it’s true, the Browns don’t know what to expect from the Panthers offense on Sunday, but history suggests they should expect a similar variation of the offense McAdoo ran in New York. It’s not common for an NFL coach to adopt a new offense and it’s a whole different thing to install, execute and call said offense after acquiring your starting quarterback just before training camp.
Certainly, they will do what they can to make it work to Mayfield’s strengths, but at a base level they should expect the same philosophies McAdoo has lived by in the past.
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