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The New Orleans Saints (2-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) meet in the Week 5 Monday Night Football game. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Saints vs. Chiefs odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions..
The Saints dropped a tough 26-24 game at the Atlanta Falcons last week on a last-second field goal. Despite the loss, New Orleans covered as a 2.5-point underdog and the Over (43) hit. QB Derek Carr (28 of 36, 239 passing yards, 1 INT) didn’t find the end zone, but RB Alvin Kamara stood out again, racking up 119 total yards (77 rushing, 42 receiving) and a touchdown.
The Chiefs moved to 4-0, covering as 6.5-point favorites in a 17-10 win at the LA Chargers in Week 4 — with the Under (42) cashing. TE Travis Kelce led the way with 89 receiving yards on 7 catches, while RB Kareem Hunt impressed in his return, racking up 69 yards on 14 carries (4.9 yards per carry). Kansas City’s balanced effort kept its perfect record intact.
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Saints at Chiefs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Sunday at 5:57 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Saints +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Chiefs -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Saints +5.5 (-110) | Chiefs -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Saints at Chiefs key injuries
Saints
- LB Willie Gay Jr. (hand) out
- TE Taysom Hill (rib) out
- OL Shane Lemieux (ankle) out
- OL Lucas Patrick (groin) questionable
- OL Cesar Ruiz (knee) out
- LB Pete Werner (hamstring) questionable
Chiefs
- RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) doubtful
- WR Mecole Hardman (knee) questionable
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Saints at Chiefs picks and predictions
Prediction
Saints 20, Chiefs 17
Moneyline
BET SAINTS (+200).
This Monday Night Football game has seen significant line movement, with the Chiefs opening at -6.5 but dropping fast. Kansas City sits at 4-0, but its offense is in trouble. With RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Rashee Rice out — both on the Injured Reserve list — QB Patrick Mahomes is carrying too much weight, and now the Chiefs face a strong Saints defense.
The New Orleans offense has turned a corner under new OC Klint Kubiak. The Saints lead the league in scoring (31.8 points per game) and run attempts (34.5 per game), while Carr is thriving, ranking top-5 in yards per pass (8.2) and completion rate (71.3%). Despite 2 tough losses, their defense has remained solid, and Carr’s experience against the Chiefs could be crucial.
With Kansas City’s injuries piling up, there’s good value in backing NEW ORLEANS (+200), even on the money line.
Against the spread
PASS.
If you want to play it safe, you can take the 5.5 points with New Orleans, but I’m riding on the moneyline.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 43 (-110).
The total for this game dropped from 45.5 to 42.5, highlighting the offensive struggles on both sides. Kansas City is thin at receiver with Rice out and Kelce heavily covered (just 39.5 yards per game). Rookie WR Xavier Worthy isn’t ready to be the top target, and Hunt’s role remains uncertain. Even with Mahomes, the Chiefs may need to rely on their defense.
Carr and the Saints face a tough task as well. Kansas City’s defense is stout against the run (3.8 yards per carry allowed) and strong in the red zone. Carr has struggled at Arrowhead, averaging 227 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT per game in his last 7 starts there. Even with new playmakers, DC Steve Spagnuolo’s defense will be tough for New Orleans to crack.
Expect a low-scoring, defensive matchup with both teams focused on ball control.
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