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The Atlanta Falcons (3-8) play host to the New Orleans Saints (9-2) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Thanksgiving as the two NFC South rivals meet for the second time in four weeks. The game is the third of the day and will kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET. We analyze the Saints-Falcons odds and sports betting lines, while providing sports betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Saints at Falcons: Week 13 preview, betting trends and notes
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- The Falcons won the Week 10 meeting in New Orleans by a 26-9 score to snap a six-game losing streak.
- The Saints are 13-1 when intercepting at least one pass since the start of last season. Falcons QB Matt Ryan has 10 INTs on the year.
- New Orleans is 27-2 when scoring 22 or more points since the start of the 2017 campaign.
- The Falcons have scored 22.0 points per game this season, but they rank 28th in the NFL with 27.0 points allowed per game. The Saints score 24.7 and allow 20.9 per game.
- The Saints are tied for fourth with a turnover differential of plus-8. The Falcons are 27th at minus-8.
Saints at Falcons: Key injuries
Falcons TE Austin Hooper (knee) and RB Devonta Freeman (foot) remain week-to-week.
Saints at Falcons: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 2:35 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Saints 24, Falcons 20
Moneyline (?)
The Falcons (+220) are home underdogs but the number is lower than it should be following the Week 10 upset. The SAINTS (-278) are getting a higher number than they should.
Atlanta is just 1-4 at home and coming off a 35-22 embarrassment at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints are 4-1 on the road and they beat the Carolina Panthers 34-31 Sunday. Take the visitors, though a $10 bet for the outright win will return a profit of just $3.60.
Against the Spread (?)
The FALCONS (+6.5, –110) are being spotted a touchdown at home and the hook is key here as they’ll need to stay within six points for the cover. The Saints are 7-4 against the spread overall, but cover by an average of just 0.6 points per game.
Back the home side with a backdoor cover keeping them within six points in defeat.
Over/Under (?)
Take the UNDER 49.5 (-106). The number is the highest on the three-game Thursday slate. Each of the last two and four of the last five head-to-head meetings fell short of that number. New Orleans is 6-5 against the Over/Under but falls an average of 1.3 points shy of the projection. Atlanta is 4-7 and falls one point below the projections on average.
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Esten’s NFL betting record: 29-34
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