The Atlanta Falcons (4-7) and New Orleans Saints (9-2) meet Sunday for the second time in three weeks, this time at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Kickoff will be at 1 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Saints-Falcons betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.
Saints at Falcons: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Saints -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Falcons +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Saints -3 (-105) | Falcons +3 (-115)
- Over/Under: 45.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Saints at Falcons: Game notes
- The Saints beat the Falcons 24-9 in New Orleans in Week 11 in QB Taysom Hill‘s first career start under center in place of the injured Drew Brees. Hill completed 18 of 23 passes for 233 yards and also rushed for 49 yards and 2 scores in the win.
- Hill ran for another 2 touchdowns in the Saints’ 31-3 shellacking of the Denver Broncos last week. He completed just 9 of 16 passes for 78 yards with an interception.
- Falcons QB Matt Ryan was sacked a season-high 8 times in the Week 11 loss while completing just 19 of 37 passes for 232 yards with 2 picks. He passed for just 185 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT in the Falcons’ 43-6 home win over the Las Vegas Raiders last week.
- Atlanta forced 5 Raiders turnovers last week and moved to plus-5 in the turnover margin for the season. The Saints are plus-7.
- New Orleans has 33 sacks to Atlanta’s 22, but the Falcons rank third in ESPN’s Team Pass Rush Win Rate to the Saints’ rank of 20th.
- The Saints are 6-5 ATS and cover the line by 3.6 points per game. The Falcons are just 5-6 ATS but cover by an average of 2.0 PPG following last week’s 37-point home upset win.
- The two NFC South rivals split their head-to-head season series last year. New Orleans won both meetings in 2018 for its only season sweep since the 2014 campaign.
Saints at Falcons: Key injuries
Saints
- WR Marquez Callaway (knee) out
- CB Janoris Jenkins (knee) out
- WR Deonte Harris (neck) questionable
- RB Ty Montgomery (hamstring) out
- DE Marcus Davenport (concussion) out
- CB Patrick Robinson (hamstring) questionable
Falcons
- DE Dante Fowler (hamstring) questionable
- WR Julio Jones (hamstring) questionable
- RB Todd Gurley (knee) questionable
- CB Kendall Sheffield (illness) questionable
- G James Carpenter (groin) out
Saints at Falcons: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Falcons 27, Saints 17
Money line (?)
Back the FALCONS (+135) in their second meeting against Hill in just three weeks. The college quarterback turned wide receiver/tight end turned quarterback has benefited from strong defensive play and favorable matchups through his first two starts and hasn’t shown he can beat NFL teams with his arm.
The Falcons offensive line and Ryan both had sub-par outings while giving up 8 sacks in Week 11. Look for a much better performance from both, and especially the former MVP, as the Falcons force Hill to play catch-up for the first time in three games under center.
Against the spread (?)
The best play is with the plus-money money line, but the FALCONS +3 (-115), who have blown multiple leads this season, should also be back with insurance whenever possible.
Over/Under (?)
Lean slightly to the UNDER 45.5 (-105) with the Falcons having experience against Hill and being much better equipped to contain his scramble-first attack this time around. If the Falcons succeed in scoring early, Hill will make more mistakes than touchdown throws while trailing.
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Also see:
- Jordan named NFC Defensive Player of the Month (Saints Wire)
- 20 potential Falcons draft prospects (Falcons Wire)
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