The New Orleans Pelicans (19-32) visit the Mile High City Friday to play the Denver Nuggets (28-23). Tip-off at the Ball Arena is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
NOLA snapped a 4-game losing skid Tuesday by defeating the Pistons in Detroit 111-101 as 2.5-point favorites. The Pelicans are 2-4 straight up (SU) but 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games.
Denver lost the final two games of a 6-game road trip, falling at the Minnesota Timberwolves 130-115 Tuesday and at the Utah Jazz without leading scorer in C Nikola Jokic 108-104 Wednesday. The Nuggets are 5-3 SU and 3-4-1 ATS in their last eight games.
Denver is 2-0 SU and ATS versus New Orleans this season with the O/U going 1-1.
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Pelicans at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:59 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pelicans +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Nuggets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Pelicans +5.5 (-105) | Nuggets -5.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Pelicans at Nuggets key injuries
Pelicans
- SG Josh Hart (knee) questionable
- C Willy Hernangomez (health and safety protocols) out
- SG Garrett Temple (health and safety protocols) out
Nuggets
- C Demarcus Cousins (foot) questionable
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Pelicans at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 115, Pelicans 103
Money line
PASS.
I only “lean” to Denver laying the points, and there’s no way I’d bet on the Nuggets’ -250 price.
Against the spread
LEAN to the NUGGETS -5.5 (-120).
Denver is 7-6 (ATS) at home versus teams with a losing record. New Orleans is 8-10 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record.
More importantly, the Nuggets have a massive edge in the shooting department. They are third in effective field-goal percentage (eFG%). New Orleans is 27th in defensive eFG%.
It’s only a “lean” to the NUGGETS -5.5 (-120) because I have a stronger grasp of the total (see below).
Over/Under
There are a bunch of reasons to like UNDER 224.5 (-112).
NOLA is 22nd in pace and Denver is 23rd and both are top 10 in rebounding rate. So, I’m expecting a slow tempo and several “one-and-done” possessions.
Two of the three referees assigned to this matchup officiate far more Unders. This officiating crew has a combined 43-58 O/U record.
Denver has the third-worst free-throw attempt rate (FTr) and, while NOLA is fifth in FTr, the Nuggets are 10th in defensive FT/FGA rate. Typically, Under-friendly officials call fewer fouls, which keeps the clock running and obviously limits free-throw attempts.
I’m fading the heavy line movement and all the pro-Over money in the betting market. This opened with a 220-point total before being steamed all the way up to the current price.
NOLA is 0-6 O/U versus teams with a winning record, and the Under has cashed in six of the past seven Pelicans-Nuggets meetings.
The only reason the Dec. 8 Pelicans-Nuggets game went Over is that there were 24 points scored in overtime.
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