UNM is looking to end a nine-game road losing streak, the fifth-longest. the Lobos are just 1-25 in its last 26 road games, while UMass is 3-16 in its previous 19 home games.
The Lobos feature the third-most improved Offense in the country (only behind Colorado and Georgia Tech), as UNM is averaging 403.3 yards per game.
New Mexico has surpassed the 400-yard mark twice as many times as the last two seasons combined.
UNM Defense is also ranked third in the Mountain West in yards allowed per game at 362.7 yards.
When Danny Gonzales hired UAB Offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent and his Offensive line coach Cam Blankenship, the icing on the cake was proven Quarterback Dylan Hopkins has 19 wins on 25 FBS starts.
It has proven to be accurate, as the Lobos were dead last in FBS in total offense last year and now are ranked 59th in 187 plays, 1210 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 403.3 yards per game.
That is a jump of 66 in FBS total yards on offense; that’s pretty impressive any way you look at it. There was an absolute level of enthusiasm in Lobo land as this was the shot in the arm for this program, especially alongside the proven 3-3-5 Defense that has been the bread and butter for the Lobos.
What was not expected was a Lobo secondary that looks like a work in progress and at times that at the back end would give up such big plays.
New Mexico has given up 10 explosive passes through three games, tied with 12 other teams for 78th in the country, six of them going for touchdowns.
So, you can bet two things that secondary Lobo coach Davie Howes is having his“Come-to-Jesus” meetings with this young secondary.
This does not escape the eyes of the offensive coordinators of opponents watching the film as the old saying “the film never lies” is true.
Until this is fixed; these young players can expect to have these great coordinators drawing up plays against them; that is just the reality in FBS football.
Danny Gonzales has gone on record in his pressers that his young players need to grow up and grow up fast, even spending more time in secondary meetings. They will vastly improve if the Lobo defense gets back to playing the old Lobo
physical play from the box area with Mike and Sam (middle and strong linebackers). This 3-3-5 defense must put pressure on quarterbacks to not have time in the pocket to throw long routes against them.
So, the big guys up front for the Lobos must play lights out to get some sacks in the backfield as that has not been the case this year. The bottom line is that this Defense cannot afford to give up such big plays and missed 9 tackles last week.
Minutemen Players to watch
Some of the key players for the Minutemen are Quarterback Carlos Davis, with 690 yards with an average of 172.5 yards per game, five touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Running back Kay’Ron Adams leads UMASS offense with 366 yards on 71 carries and scoring three TDs; Taisun Phommachann has run 130 yards on 25 carries with two TDs on the ground.
Anthony Simpson leads the team with receptions with 14 carries 289 yards (72.3 yards per game), followed by George Johnson’s 13 receptions, 131 yards, and one TD. Christian Wells is averaging 27 yards per game, racking up five receptions for 108 yards.
Lobo Players to watch
For the Lobos, Dylan Hopkins has 635 passing yards (211.7 yards per game), completing 60% of his passes, throwing five touchdowns, and two interceptions.
If Hopkins gets hot during the game, which could spell trouble for the minutemen, who give up 37.3 points per game. This young quarterback is one of the top quarterbacks in the Mountain West Conference, currently ranking 5th out of 12 Mountain West Conference season in total QBR leaders on ESPN rankings
He is known for being calm under pressure, with poise. He has pinpoint accuracy to his top receivers, and the Lobos have many of them.
Deuce Jones is the top receiver for this Lobo offense, with 125 receiving yards (41.7 yards per game) leading the team. He has five receptions with one touchdown.
Luke Wysong has collected 99 receiving yards (33 yards per game) and one touchdown, reeling in six passes this year. With 11 receptions this season, Jeremiah Hixon has garnered 87 yards, 29 yards per game. The Lobos have three to four breakaway receivers who can take it to the house when the ball is accurately thrown their way.
Jacory Merritt (a 5-foot-11, 204-pound transfer running back from Alabama State) carried the ball 39 times for a team-high 295 yards (98.3 per game), with five touchdowns this year, leading the Lobos on the rushing attack.
His nickname is Bill, and he is a very physical and violent runner per offensive line coach Cam Blankenship after he saw him in spring practice for the Lobos.
Blankenship didn’t even nod his head. “I ain’t seen a dude like that. And I’ve been around some good backs,” he said. “I mean, some
All-American type backs. In the league backs. “That dude is different.” (Sean Reider, Albuquerque Journal). He leads the entire Mountain West Conference in rushing over Elijah Gilliam (Fresno State) and Owen Burk (Air Force), which is impressive for the Lobo offense and averages an eye-popping 7.6 yards per carry.
In that case, the Lobo is lighting in a bottle running back Dorian Lewis, averaging 5.8 yards per carry with 110 yards on 19 attempts.
Lobo Keys to the game for Victory
The Lobos will have a better offensive output than last weekend and should, at the very least, hit their average of 35.7 points per game and be very balanced.
Hopkins will have an excellent passing game, hitting the incredibly talented receivers on this roster; the Offensive Coordinator Bryant Vincent will stretch the field on this game, too much on the line not to.
I see the Minutemen struggling to stop this balanced Offense of 223 yards passing and 180.3 yards rushing. Look for “Bill” Jacory Merritt to have a monster game followed by backup Dorian Lewis, Sherod White, and ULM transfer Andrew Henry.
Make no mistake about it: we are not talking about Texas A&M, who the Lobos moved the ball on; they must play up and not play down, and after seeing the Offensive Line Coach’s intense meeting after practice with this offensive line, I look to see this pay dividends for the Offense.
The key to the trajectory this Danny Gonzales team will go is stopping the big plays on Defense, the secondary must step up for Danny Gonzales Lobos.
They are having a solid outing this game, and the Lobos get some sacks to help out this secondary. This Lobo team is much better than their record.
Prediction
UNM 42 UMass 28
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