The New England Patriots (6-4) will try to extend their four-game win streak on Thursday Night Football when they visit the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Kickoff will be at 8:20 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Patriots vs. Falcons prop bet odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Three of the Patriots’ last four wins were by at least 18 points, most recently a 45-7 trouncing of the Cleveland Browns at home for their sixth win of the year. QB Mac Jones is one of the favorites to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, while the defense as a whole has allowed the second-fewest points per game this season.
The Falcons haven’t played quality football on either side of the ball this year, ranking 25th in scoring and 31st in points allowed per game. They lack weapons on offense after WR Calvin Ridley stepped away from the game for personal reasons, and despite CB A.J. Terrell playing well, the rest of the defense has struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks.
Patriots at Falcons prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan OVER 22.5 completions (+100)
This game is going to require the Falcons to throw the ball — a lot. Assuming the Patriots take an early lead and start to pull away, the same way they have in three of their last four games, Ryan is going to air it out a bunch. He’s completing more than 67% of his passes this season so assuming he attempts at least 35 passes — which he did in each of the first six games of this season — he should hit 23 completions.
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Falcons TE Kyle Pitts UNDER 61.5 receiving yards (-123)
Bill Belichick is known for his ability to eliminate a team’s best weapon in a given week, and Pitts will be that player this week. The Patriots’ secondary is great and because the Falcons don’t have Ridley, New England can double Pitts and bracket him with a safety over the top and a linebacker underneath. The Patriots will find a way to limit his production and keep him in check.
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD scorer (-115)
RB Damien Harris is expected to play against the Falcons but Stevenson should remain the red zone back. He scored two touchdowns last week and looked deserving of RB1 status as he carried it 20 times for 100 yards. The Patriots are always tough to gauge with their backfield, but I like Stevenson to score a touchdown tonight.
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Patriots QB Mac Jones OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-143)
The Falcons have allowed 19 touchdown passes in nine games this season, the third-most in the NFL — that’s an average of more than two per game. Jones has thrown eight touchdown passes in his last five games, including three against the Browns last week. Considering how Patriots are rolling offensively and how bad the Falcons pass defense has been, Jones is solid bet to throw more than one touchdown pass.
Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne OVER 2.5 receptions (-175)
Bourne has seen a healthy share of work in the last four weeks. He’s been targeted 19 times, catching 15 passes for 238 yards. The Falcons may choose to put Terrell on WR Jakobi Meyers, which will open things up for Bourne to catch at least three passes.
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