A week ago, the Georgia Bulldogs were on the outside looking in at the 12-team College Football Playoff picture.
This week, a new SEC team is in that spot. If the playoff started today, the Tennessee Volunteers would miss the cut after their 31-17 loss to Georgia over the weekend at Sanford Stadium.
As for the Alabama Crimson Tide, Kalen DeBoer’s team was one of the biggest risers in Tuesday’s updated selection committee rankings. Alabama rose three spots to No. 7 in the new rankings.
While the Crimson Tide’s win over a Football Championship Subdivision opponent (Mercer) might seem relatively unimpressive, consider this: Not only did Alabama leap Tennessee and the BYU Cougars after those teams lost, but the Tide also jumped the 9-1 Miami Hurricanes, the highest-ranked ACC team.
RELATED: Complete CFP Rankings 1-25 entering Week 13
Interestingly, one of biggest changes in the rankings was the selection committee showing us what it thought of the Big 12’s lack of a true conference power. After BYU was exposed in a 17-13 loss to the Kansas Jayhawks (4-6), the committee moved Boise State — the highest-ranked Group of Five team and projected Mountain West champion — ahead of the Cougars and, thus, into the No. 4 seed.
As a reminder, playoff rankings and actual seeding are two different things. Miami is the No. 8 team in the committee’s rankings, but they’re the No. 3 seed as the projected ACC champion. And as with last week, SMU may be one of the first teams out in the rankings, but the Mustangs still have a direct path to the ACC title game.
With that out of the way, here’s a look at what the bracket for the 12-team field would look like if the College Football Playoff started today, as well as who Alabama would face.
Projected Conference Champions, First-Round Byes
No. 1 seed: Oregon Ducks
Oregon College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 1
Oregon Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 1
Oregon 2024 Record: 11-0 overall, 8-0 Big Ten
Barring an upset loss to Washington, Oregon will remain in this spot until at least the Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis.
No. 2 seed: Texas Longhorns
Texas College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 3
Texas Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 2
Texas 2024 Record: 9-1 overall, 5-1 SEC
Like last week, Texas is the projected No. 2 seed as the highest-ranked SEC team, though more college football analysts this week are trending in the direction of Alabama taking the conference crown. Part of that is how Texas and Alabama have looked in recent weeks. The Crimson Tide have been on a tear since their 24-17 loss at Tennessee. Texas lost by two scores to Georgia and looked largely uninspiring in a 20-10 win at Arkansas last week.
No. 3 seed: Miami Hurricanes
Miami College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 8
Miami Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 3
Miami 2024 Record: 9-1 overall, 5-1 ACC
Miami had a bye in Week 12 and closes the regular season with a home game against Wake Forest and a road trip to Syracuse.
No. 4 seed: Boise State Broncos
Boise State College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 12
Boise State Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 4
Boise State 2024 Record: 9-1 overall, 6-0 MWC
Honestly? I think the selection committee got this one right. Can you name one Big 12 team that you’d feel 100% comfortable wagering on to beat Boise State? I can’t, and that’s why I’m fine with Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos surpassing BYU this week.
First Round CFP Matchups
No. 12 BYU Cougars seed at No. 5 seed Ohio State Buckeyes
BYU College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 14
BYU 2024 Record: 9-1 overall, 6-1 Big 12
Ohio State College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 2
Ohio State 2024 Record: 9-1 overall, 7-1 Big Ten
The Buckeyes remain the highest-ranked at-large seed — and the biggest example of the difference between playoff ranking vs. playoff seeding. Ohio State still has a chance to take the No. 1 overall spot in the rankings when the final 12-team field is announced in December, but it will have to beat two current top five teams to do it.
No. 11 seed Georgia Bulldogs at No. 6 seed Penn State Nittany Lions
Georgia College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 10
Georgia 2024 Record: 8-2 overall, 6-2 SEC
Penn State College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 4
Penn State 2024 Record: 9-1 overall, 6-1 Big Ten
TV executives, not to mention conference homers, would salivate over this potential matchup between an SEC heavyweight and a Penn State program looking to become one in the Big Ten.
No. 10 seed Ole Miss Rebels at No. 7 seed Indiana Hoosiers
Ole Miss College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 9
Ole Miss 2024 Record: 8-2 overall, 4-2 SEC
Indiana College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 5
Indiana 2024 Record: 10-0 overall, 7-0 Big Ten
Can Ole Miss avoid the upset bug against a Florida Gators team that suddenly doesn’t seem that bad? Probably, but it’s an early kickoff in Gainesville against a team that just scored its first upset of 2024 and would love to ruin someone’s College Football Playoff hopes.
As for the Hoosiers, Curt Cignetti’s team faces what has to be the biggest game in the history of IU football when it heads to Columbus to face Ohio State. Indiana obviously wants to win, but even a close or competitive loss to the Buckeyes would keep the Hoosiers in the playoff conversation.
No. 9 seed Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 8 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Alabama College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 7
Alabama 2024 Record: 8-2 overall, 4-2 SEC
Notre Dame College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 6
Notre Dame 2024 Record: 9-1 overall
Last week’s rankings had Alabama on the road in the first round of the Playoff at another Indiana campus (Bloomington). But it would be the Crimson Tide at Notre Dame, if the playoffs began today. In terms of heavyweight college football programs that ooze tradition, this would be an epic matchup for an on-campus playoff game.
Alabama still needs to avoid any calamities at Oklahoma and against Auburn in the Iron Bowl, but the Crimson Tide are well-positioned for a trip to the SEC championship game in Atlanta entering Week 13. Meanwhile, Notre Dame will have to ruin one of college football’s biggest feel-good stories this week by beating an Army team that’s 9-0 and then beat USC at the Coliseum on Nov. 30.
On The Bubble/First Four Out
- No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (8-2)
- No. 13 SMU Mustangs (9-1)
- No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (8-2)
- No. 16 Colorado Buffaloes (8-2)
CFP Quarterfinals
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. 8/9 Winner
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. 7/10 Winner
Peach Bowl: No. 3 Miami Hurricanes vs. 6/11 Winner
Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Boise State Broncos vs. 5/12 Winner