There’s a great deal of football left to be played, but if the 12-team College Football Playoff started today, the Georgia Bulldogs would be out.
The Alabama Crimson Tide would be in, as would the Texas Longhorns, Tennessee Volunteers and Ole Miss Rebels. Yes, Ole Miss jumped Georgia in Tuesday’s updated selection committee rankings after its 28-10 victory over the Bulldogs at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Georgia is No. 12 in the new list, but is the selection committee’s first team out followed by the SMU Mustangs.
As for Alabama, the Crimson Tide moved up one spot to No. 10 following their 42-13 blowout win at LSU.
But playoff rankings and actual bracket seeding are two different things. The Miami Hurricanes are the No. 9 team in the playoff committee rankings, but they’re the No. 4 seed as the projected ACC champion.
Again, there’s a great deal of football still to be played with conference championship races to be sorted out. SMU may be one of the first teams out in the latest rankings, but it still controls its ACC title game path. The same is true for Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes in the Big 12. Both teams have three remaining regular-season games.
Here’s a look at what the bracket for the 12-team field would look like if the College Football Playoff started tomorrow, as well as who Alabama would face.
Projected Conference Champions, First-Round Byes
No. 1 seed: Oregon Ducks
Oregon College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 1
Oregon Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 1
Oregon 2024 Record: 10-0 overall, 7-0 Big Ten
The Oregon Ducks are one of just three unbeaten Power Four schools after Miami lost at Georgia Tech. Indiana and BYU are the other two. Oregon is also ranked No. 1 in both the Coaches Poll and AP poll. This is an easy choice by the committee.
No. 2 seed: Texas Longhorns
Texas College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 3
Texas Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 2
Texas 2024 Record: 8-1 overall, 4-1 SEC
Texas is the No. 2 seed because it is projected to win an SEC that still has a number of other teams that could make their way to Atlanta, including Alabama. With Georgia’s loss to Ole Miss, the Longhorns overtook the Bulldogs for the top spot among SEC teams.
No. 3 seed: BYU Cougars
BYU College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 6
BYU Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 3
BYU 2024 Record: 9-0 overall, 6-0 Big 12
A big surprise this season is the Big 12 championship race, which most preseason predictions awarded to Kyle Whittingham and the Utah Utes. But it’s BYU that controls its title game path after surviving last week’s rivalry with Utah and close calls against Baylor and Oklahoma State.
No. 4 seed: Miami Hurricanes
Miami College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 9
Miami Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 4
Miami 2024 Record: 9-1 overall, 5-1 ACC
Miami’s projection is a bit interesting because it is third in the ACC standings behind SMU and Clemson, the latter of which has two losses on the season. But Cam Ward and the ‘Canes are still on a path to get to the ACC championship game, provided they avoid further upsets against Wake Forest and Syracuse.
First Round CFP Matchups
No. 12 seed Boise State Broncos at No. 5 seed Ohio State Buckeyes
Boise State College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 13
Boise State 2024 Record: 8-1 overall, 5-0 Mountain West
Ohio State College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 2
Ohio State 2024 Record: 8-1 overall, 5-1 Big Ten
The Buckeyes are the highest-ranked example of the difference between playoff ranking and playoff seeding. Ohio State still has a great chance to take the No. 1 overall seed when the final 12-team field is announced in December.
While Boise State is one spot behind Georgia in the CFP rankings, it is the highest-ranked Group of Five squad and the projected No. 12 seed. The Broncos would draw a tough matchup: a visit to Columbus.
No. 11 seed Ole Miss Rebels at No. 6 seed Penn State Nittany Lions
Ole Miss College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 11
Ole Miss 2024 Record: 8-2 overall, 4-2 SEC
Penn State College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 4
Penn State 2024 Record: 8-1 overall, 5-1 Big Ten
Big Ten teams are doing very well for themselves in the expanded playoff field. New conference member Oregon leads the way, and Ohio State is, well, Ohio State — a perennial league power. At the onset of the 2024 season, no one seemed more likely to benefit from the 12-team format than Penn State, and that is bearing out.
In Oxford, Lane Kiffin won the biggest game in his five seasons at Ole Miss with the victory over Georgia. The Rebels’ Week 5 loss to Kentucky is an ugly one, but their chances of reaching the playoff are strong if they avoid the upset bug against the Florida Gators and their Egg Bowl showdown with Mississippi State (in Oxford).
No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers
Alabama College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 10
Alabama 2024 Record: 7-2 overall, 4-2 SEC
Indiana College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 5
Indiana 2024 Record: 10-0 overall, 7-0 Big Ten
Imagine for a moment Alabama makes the playoff but has to go on the road to a snowy Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. We’re getting ahead of ourselves, sure, but fans would never forget such a matchup. Alabama moved up one spot from last week’s CFP rankings after crushing LSU behind Jalen Milroe’s four touchdown runs and a smothering defense. The Crimson Tide’s remaining schedule features a quality Football Championship Subdivision opponent, Mercer (No. 9 in the FCS rankings), a road trip to Oklahoma and their Iron Bowl showdown with Auburn at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Indiana has been the biggest surprise in the Big Ten and college football. The Hoosiers survived a close call at home against Michigan over the weekend and have a bye this Saturday before heading to Columbus to face Ohio State. The Hoosiers would be in with a win against the Buckeyes, but even a competitive loss would keep them in the playoff conversation.
No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 7
Tennessee 2024 Record: 8-1 overall, 5-1 SEC
Notre Dame College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 8
Notre Dame 2024 Record: 8-1 overall
Notre Dame’s stunning 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois will not be enough to keep Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish out of the playoff field. Riley Leonard has led Notre Dame to quality wins over Texas A&M and Louisville. Outside of that Week 2 loss, the Irish have dominated the rest of the teams on their schedule, including last week’s 52-3 beat down of Florida State.
As for Tennessee, the committee moved Indiana ahead of Nico Iamaleava and the Vols despite their win over Mississippi State. Tennessee faces Georgia Saturday in Athens in what should be a must-win game for both teams.
On the Bubble/First Four Out
Georgia Bulldogs, SMU Mustangs, Texas A&M Aggies, Kansas State Wildcats
No one envisioned preseason No. 1 Georgia would be on the outside looking in by November, but Carson Beck continues to struggle and the Bulldogs have a three-score loss on their résumé. A loss to Tennessee at home this weekend would devastate the Bulldogs’ playoff hopes.
CFP Quarterfinals
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. 8/9 Winner
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. 7/10 Winner
Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 BYU Cougars vs. 6/11 Winner
Peach Bowl: No. 4 Miami Hurricanes vs. 5/12 Winner