The NCAA Tournament field is far from being finalized. We have five weeks until Selection Sunday, March 12. There’s a lot of basketball left to be played. We don’t live in a context dominated by certainties. There are a lot of probabilities and likelihoods, but not stone-cold locks. Not yet.
However, we’re pretty close to locking in one fact: The Mountain West Conference is almost certain to have more NCAA Tournament teams than the Pac-12, an affirmation of how bad a year it has been for Pac-12 men’s basketball.
With Oregon beating Arizona State on Saturday, the Ducks and Sun Devils are both outside the field of 68. Utah’s loss against Stanford was a crusher. The Utes aren’t even on the bubble radar right now. They will have to win several games just to get into the middle of the bubble picture.
If the Pac-12 is lucky, it will get four teams in the NCAA Tournament. Oregon or Arizona State might get hot. Both teams could get on a roll, but that’s not likely. Realistically, only one will produce a winning streak. Utah and Arizona State play each other later this month, which means one team is guaranteed to lose. There just isn’t enough time for the Pac-12 to put five teams in, unless one team wins the Pac-12 Tournament and grabs a surprising automatic bid.
If we accept the idea that four teams is the ceiling for the Pac-12, four teams looks like the floor for the Mountain West. San Diego State, Boise State, and New Mexico all look solid. Nevada just beat San Diego State and New Mexico at home to significantly improve its bubble odds. Utah State just beat New Mexico and Colorado State. The Mountain West is one of the few conferences where bubble teams are collecting good wins.
The Pac-12 is running out of chances to play its way in. The Mountain West is running out of scenarios in which its teams can play their way out.
The MWC could get five bids to only four for the Pac-12. It could get four to the Pac-12’s three. The final tally could be 5-3. A 4-4 tie might be the one scenario in which the Mountain West does not send more teams to the NCAA Tournament than the Pac-12.
Under no scenario other than a surprise automatic bid can the Pac-12 possibly get more bids than the Mountain West. There is basically a one-percent chance of that happening at the moment.
That’s how bad a year it has been for Pac-12 men’s basketball.
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