NC State at North Carolina odds, picks and predictions

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The No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (22-6, 14-3 ACC) welcome the NC State Wolfpack (17-11, 9-8) to the Dean E. Smith Center Saturday. Tip is set for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the NC State vs. North Carolina odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

North Carolina is No. 8 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. UNC beat the Miami Hurricanes 75-71 Monday, failing to cover as a 15-point home favorite. The Tar Heels have won 3 straight games and are 4-2 straight up over their last 6. They are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) over the 6 games but 15-12-1 ATS on the season. North Carolina is led by G RJ Davis, who is averaging 21.7 points per game.

NC State lost on the road to the Florida State Seminoles 90-83 Tuesday, failing to cover as a 3-point underdog. The Wolfpack have lost 4 of their last 6 and are 3-3 ATS in that span. NC State is 12-15-1 ATS on the season and is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 on the road. The Pack are led by G DJ Horne, who is averaging 17.5 points per game.

UNC won 67-54 as a 2.5-point road underdog in the 1st meeting with NC State this season (Jan. 10) with the Under (154) cashing.

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NC State at North Carolina odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:14 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): NC State +430 (bet $100 to win $430) | North Carolina -600 (bet $600 to win $100)
Against the spread: NC State +10.5 (-110) | North Carolina -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 154.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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NC State at North Carolina picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 84, NC State 73

Moneyline

PASS.

The Tar Heels (-600) have been too consistently good this season to bet against them at home, where they are 12-1. However, they are also far too expensive to take outright. AVOID a moneyline play.

Against the spread

BET NORTH CAROLINA -10.5 (-110).

The Tar Heels are 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games as double-digit favorites. They’re also 5-3 ATS in their last 8 home games. UNC is 2-1 ATS in its last 3 games, including 1-1 as a double-digit favorite.

As mentioned, NC State is 12-15-1 ATS on the season, but it is just 3-5 ATS in its last 7 contests. The Wolfpack don’t have the consistency to hang with a team like the rival Heels. They have 4 players averaging more than 5.6 points per game — all 4 average more than 11.6 PPG or more — and 2 of them shoot under 42% from the field.

UNC has more depth in scoring and is more well-rounded side. TAKE NORTH CAROLINA -10.5 (-110).

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 154.5 (-115).

North Carolina plays at an ultra-fast pace and has both efficiency scoring and ample size to crash the offensive glass. The Tar Heels have gone Over in 4 of their last 8 games and have scored at least 75 in 6 of their last 7. They have allowed at least 80 in 2 of their last 4.

NC State has gone Over in 5 straight games, scoring at least 80 in 3 straight and allowing at least 83 in 3 of its last 5. That said, expect a high-pace game and TAKE OVER 154.5 (-115).

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