The NBA Christmas slate is headlined by Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks taking on LeBron James’ Los Angeles Lakers as well as Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers playing the Denver Nuggets in their first meeting since the Clippers’ 3-1 collapse in their Western Conference Semifinals series last season.
The 5-game schedule has some pretty enticing prop markets worth examining. Below, we give you four NBA player/team prop bets to consider from the BetMGM game menu.
NBA Christmas prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 a.m. ET.
Heat PF Bam Adebayo UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-105)
This is more of a play on newly acquired New Orleans Pelicans C Steven Adams‘ effectiveness than it is against Adebayo. Adams is one of the biggest bodies in the NBA and, even though his career rebound numbers aren’t staggering, he has been in the top 20 in total rebounding percentage for the last four seasons (minimum of 60 starts). The best part of Adams’ game is that he keeps opponents off the glass.
Bucks SF Khris Middleton OVER 2.5 3-pointers (+120)
From a mathematical perspective, Middleton sinking 3 or more 3’s at +120 is an awesome bet. This prop has an implied win probability of 45.5% at +120 and Middleton hit 3 or more 3’s in 29 of 62 regular-season starts last season, which is a 46.8% rate.
The Bucks’ Christmas day opponents—the Golden State Warriors—gave up 15 3’s in their first game and gave up the third-most 3’s per game in 2019-20. Also, the Warriors will be without Draymond Green, so they will need to pay a little extra attention to Giannis Antetokounmpo, freeing up Middleton to rain 3’s.
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Clippers SF Kawhi Leonard OVER 25.5 points (-135)
The Claw has scored 26 or more points in four of his last five games against the Denver Nuggets and should be out for vengeance because of last season’s playoff disaster.
Denver’s best defensive wing from last season—SF Jerami Grant—signed with the Detroit Pistons this offseason and Kawhi’s projected matchup, SF Michael Porter Jr., had trouble staying on the court due to his weak defense. This feels like a spot Kawhi is going to drop a 30-piece on the Nuggets.
Mavericks PG Luka Doncic & Lakers PF Anthony Davis both score 30+ points (+400)
Speaking of 30-pieces, this is the longest odds of any prop here on my bet slip and it requires two MVP contenders putting up 30 each in the biggest showcase game of the season.
Doncic put 32 points in his first game against the Phoenix Suns despite going 0-for-6 from behind the arc. However, Luka is in just his third season and already gets superstar treatment from the officials. He was third last season in free-throw attempts.
As far as Davis is concerned, the 30-plus points won’t be hard if he brings his A-game. His Christmas day matchup—PF Dorian Finney-Smith—had a below-average defensive efficiency last season and Dallas big man Kristaps Porzingis is sidelined with a knee injury.
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Also see:
- Pelicans at Heat odds, picks and prediction
- Warriors at Bucks odds, picks and prediction
- Mavericks at Lakers odds, picks and prediction
- Clippers at Nuggets odds, picks and prediction
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