The Denver Nuggets welcome the Miami Heat to Ball Arena Thursday for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Tip is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA Finals Game 1 prop bet odds and lines, and tab the 4 best Nuggets vs. Heat prop bets to make among SportsbookWire’s expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Nuggets swept the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals while the Heat, who were up 3-0 on the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, ended up winning a road Game 7.
Led by two-time MVP C Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets are strong favorites, but F Jimmy Butler seems to thrive when counted out. That said, let’s dive into the top prop bets for Game 1.
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Game 1: Best Heat at Nuggets prop bet picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 a.m. ET.
Heat SF Jimmy Butler points: UNDER 27.5 (-120)
Butler is the Heat’s star, but he hasn’t necessarily been the most consistent scorer. Butler had games of 14 and 16 in the Celtics series and went Under this total in 4 of 7 games.
The Nuggets ranked 10th in the regular season in opponents’ free-throw attempt rate. Butler has had double-digit free throws in 9 games during the playoffs. Defended by a larger player in F Aaron Gordon will be a factor as well.
Put it together and take the UNDER 27.5 (-120).
Nuggets G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope turnovers: UNDER 0.5 (+140)
For this value, KCP to not have a turnover is worth a play. He has had 1 turnover in 4 straight games after having none in 4 straight games. He hasn’t had a turnover in 6 of his 15 playoff games.
He didn’t have a turnover in 8 of his last 15 regular-season games as well. KCP isn’t a huge playmaker and is more of a 3-and-D player. That should help limit any turnover-prone nature.
Take the UNDER 0.5 (+140).
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Nuggets C Nikola Jokic to get a triple-double: YES (+105).
If there’s something the Heat should aim to do, it is limit Jokic, who is the Nuggets’ best player, by far. C Bam Adebayo is among the best defenders in the NBA. He is undersized at 6-foot-9, so the rebounds shouldn’t be an issue, but he is talented enough to force Jokic to be more of a passer.
Jokic has had a triple-double in 5 of his last 6 playoff games. He went 12 or more in all categories except once against the Suns in which he had 10 rebounds. Jokic has comfortably had a triple-double in the last few weeks. He should again.
Nuggets to win by 6-10: YES (+375).
The Heat have lost 5 games in the last 2 series, and 2 of those have come by a 6-10 point spread. They should have tired legs, but are a gritty team that has typically found a way to keep the game close.
Denver has won 2 of its last 7 games by this amount and won by 5 and 11 in 2 of the last 3 games against LA. This is more of a long shot, but it is one I like.
Check out: Best bets for Game 1’s moneyline, spread and Over/Under
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