As the 2020-21 NBA regular season winds down, the biggest prize for the Houston Rockets likely involves maximizing their draft odds.
With 14 games left, the Rockets (15-43) are effectively a lock to have their NBA-leading streak of eight consecutive playoff berths come to an end. That means that for the first time since 2012, the Rockets will be among teams anxiously awaiting the results of the 2021 draft lottery.
For Houston, the stakes are higher than most teams. Due to the Chris Paul-Russell Westbrook trade in July 2019, the Rockets will lose their first-round draft pick to Oklahoma City unless it is in the draft’s top four.
The good news for the Rockets is that as of now, they’re easily among the NBA’s three worst teams by record. If they finish in the bottom three, they would maximize their odds at a top-four pick. The bad news for Houston is that because of the NBA’s revised lottery weighting system — designed to discourage teams from intentionally losing games — the chances of staying in the draft’s top four are only 52.1%, at best.
Odds the Rockets keep their first rounder
1-3: 52.1%
4: 48.1%
5: 42.1%
6: 37.2%
7: 31.9%
8: 23.5%— Adam Spolane (@AdamSpolane) March 25, 2021
Effectively, that makes it a virtual coin flip for whether Houston will get a chance to draft a top prospect such as Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, or Jalen Suggs. If Houston doesn’t finish in the top four, Oklahoma City has the right to swap Miami’s draft pick for the Houston one. As of Tuesday, Miami was projected to finish at No. 16, per Tankathon.
With the high stakes of the June 22 draft lottery in mind, here’s a look back at Houston’s previous experiences with the NBA lottery and how the Rockets have fared, relative to the percentage odds at the time. The draft lottery began in 1985, so we are reviewing outcomes from the nine non-playoff seasons completed by the Rockets over that span.
In all, the Rockets have stayed “true to seed” eight times and moved up once. They have never fallen. That’s a trend that Houston would love to continue into 2021, since their final record will almost certainly be within the range (top four) that would have the Rockets retaining their pick.
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