The series a majority of the NBA community figured would be the most competitive in the first round, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets, has lived up to the hype. Game 7 of the Thunder-Rockets tips off at 9:00 p.m. ET and is the best bet of the day.
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Thunder +5.5 (-110) against the Rockets
The best argument for the Rockets -5.5 (-110) is if you handicapped a victory and aren’t sweating the spread because Houston’s three previous wins this series came by an average margin of 20.6 points. Makes sense.
Positive game script for the Rockets is a high-octane shootout where the Thunder mistakenly tries to keep up with Houston’s 3-point barrage. But for Oklahoma City, they are going to want to slow the pace down (ranked 22nd in the NBA) and get to the foul line (3rd-highest free throw rate in the NBA).
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This is a legacy game for both sides and I like Chris Paul to maestro his team past Houston. He took over in the fourth quarter of Game 6 — scoring 15 points, grabbing 3 boards and getting 2 steals — which is a situation he’s thrived in all season.
The Thunder had the most clutch wins in the NBA during the regular season (30-15). Clutch is when the margin is five or less in the last five minutes of the game. The Thunder’s success in clutch situations is based on having CP3 run the show.
OKC has the 2nd-highest cover % in the NBA (47-31 ATS), including the postseason, and Houston is ranked 22nd (36-42 ATS). The Thunder were 3-0 ATS in the regular season against the Rockets and won outright in both games Russell Westbrook was active in.
The pressure is mounting for Westbrook and James Harden, who both have similar playoff woes as Paul. Westbrook and Harden failed to take advantage of a reeling OKC and faltered down the stretch of Game 6.
If this Game 7 is officiated like the Jazz-Nuggets was Tuesday, we could see the refs swallow their whistles, allowing both teams to pick up their defensive intensity. A game that goes Under the total favors OKC.
I “like” OKC to advance and “LOVE” THUNDER +5.5 (-110). New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Thunder +5.5 (-110) pays a $100 profit if OKC wins or loses by five or fewer points.
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