MythBusters: Why Ryan Tannehill is a scheme-transcendent, top-five NFL quarterback

Ryan Tannehill isn’t often recognized as one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, but the stats and tape tell the story: He absolutely is.

In this series, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar dives down into the NFL’s common myths and examines what the real story is. In this installment, it’s time for a greater appreciation of Ryan Tannehill, who has developed from an iffy guy in some bad Dolphins offenses to one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks — regardless of scheme or personnel — with the Titans.

How many NFL quarterbacks are truly scheme-transcendent? In other words, how many quarterbacks could succeed at or near their current levels of efficiency no matter their offensive structure? It’s a very short list at any given time. Right now, you’d probably bring up Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson (heck, you could argue that Wilson would be even better in other offenses), Deshaun Watson, and unless the system required the quarterback to run 100 times a season, perhaps Tom Brady.

If I bring up Ryan Tannehill’s name, you’d probably respond that without running back Derrick Henry and the specter of play-action, Tannehill is Just Another Guy. It is the purpose of this particular MythBusters piece to disabuse you of that notion. That’s the story, and most people are sticking to it. In truth, Tannehill has proven this season that he can succeed in just about any structure as the facilitator of the league’s top scoring offense.

In 2019, Tannehill’s first season as the Titans’ starting quarterback (an honor he didn’t actually gain until Week 7), he was by far the NFL’s most efficient quarterback when using play-action. Including the postseason, per Pro Football Focus, Tannehill completed 77.1% of his passes for 1,382 yards, 11 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 140.6. Russell Wilson ranked second with a passer rating of 124.6, to show you how large the divide was. Add in Tannehill’s numbers when he wasn’t using play-action — a 64.6% completion rate with 16 touchdowns, four picks, and a passer rating of 101.7 — and it could be said that while he didn’t collapse when not using play-action, it certainly helped, as did Henry’s presence to influence linebackers and safeties and create stacked boxes that Tannehill could exploit.

Through the first 14 games of the 2020 season, Tannehill is once again working defenses to death when using play-action. He’s completed 62.6% of his passes for a league-high 1,580 yards, 12 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 114.4, If those numbers (especially the league-high 10.2 yards per attempt) tell you that the Titans are using play-action to create even more shot plays this season… well, sort of. On play-action throws of 20 or more air yards, per Sports Info Solutions, Tannehill has 10 completions in 19 attempts for 414 yards, 314 air yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Last season, Tannehill completed seven passes on 15 attempts for 313 yards, 240 air yards, two touchdowns, and no picks. If you prorate that over a full season, there isn’t much of a difference in opportunity.

But here’s where the narratives about Tannehill go south. This season when he’s not using play-action, Tannehill’s been absolutely ridiculous: A 68.7% completion rate (much higher than with play-action) for 1,902 yards, 6.9 yards per attempt, a passer rating of 108.2… and 19 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. Only Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson have higher passer ratings with no play-action. The increased diversity and effectiveness of the Titans’ passing game in this regard is one reason Tennessee leads the NFL with 436 points (31.1 points per game) after 14 games, and why Tannehill’s overall numbers have been dizzying since he became the team’s full-time starter.

Does it help that the Titans have Derrick Henry loading up against stacked boxes (eight or more defenders) on 29.91% of his runs? Sure, it does. But Henry faced stacked boxes on 35.31% of his runs in 2019, per NFL Next Gen Stats, so it’s not quite the factor it used to be. Defenses are respecting the quarterback in this case at a higher rate than last season, and there are obvious reasons for that.

So, why is Tannehill so effective without his alleged crutches? First, it’s no fun for any defense to have to deal with receivers A.J. Brown and Corey Davis all the time, especially as Davis has come on in the second half of the season.

Second, they’re great in the passing game with heavy personnel. Per Sharp Football Stats, Tennessee leads the league in “12” personnel (one running back, two tight ends) at 33%, and in “12,” Tannehill has a 100.2 passer rating with seven touchdowns and three picks. The Titans have also run “13” personnel on 9% of their plays (only the Browns and Giants have used it at a higher rate), which makes a defense waver between stacked boxes and coverage alignment for more explosive plays. When in “13” personnel, Tannehill has a 124.7 passer rating, with six touchdown passes to no interceptions. Just as sure as you’ll see play-action out of those heavier packages, you’ll also see motion used without it to influence a defense.

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