7. Justinian Jessup, Boise State. Averaged Z-Score: 1.712. 15.5 Pts. 4.5 Rebs. 2.1 Ast.
Justinian Jessup ranks 15th in PIPM and 13th in POE. He is Boise State’s second option on offense, and does a good job at it. His shooting numbers so far are 43/40/93, which is an impressive line. He also takes care of the ball, and despite not having the best defensive impact he doesn’t commit a lot of fouls. Boise State is 11.8 points per 100 possessions better when Jessup is on the floor.
6. Derrick Alston, Boise State. Averaged Z-Score: 1.882. 20.3 Pts. 5.7 Rebs. 3.3 Ast.
Derrick Alston is the guy that makes Boise States’ offense go. He’s at his best when he’s able to attack the rim and draw contact, but he is an above average shooter from deep as well. His shooting line is 44/36/84. He checks in at 14th in PIPM and 9th in POE. He is the latest example of a player showing great development at Boise State. His defense has been about average this season, but when you score 20 points a game average defense is acceptable.
5. Nathan Mensah, San Diego State. Averaged Z-Score: 2.065. 6.9 Pts. 6.8 Rebs. 0.3 Ast.
Nathan Mensah might be the best example of a player whose box score stats don’t jump out at you, but his impact is felt on the court. He could be a poster child for why advanced analytics are so important. You can start to get a feel for Nathan’s defensive impact when you see he is 34th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, and 28th in the nation in block percentage. Even those numbers don’t do him justice though. Opposing offenses average 75 points per 100 possessions when Nathan is on the court. The worse offense in Div. 1 is Arkansas-Pine Bluff. They score 74.3 points per 100 possessions. So basically, Nathan Mensah turns your team into the worst offense in basketball. His D-PIPM leads the Mountain West at +5.38, with the next closest player being at only +3.74. He’s head and shoulders above everyone else in the conference defensively. I said earlier that generally speaking, the max score you could get on a Z-score is 3, and when averaging multiple Z-scores it should be even lower cause one score below 3 would bring it down. Only the truly elite could get a score above 3. When using only defensive metrics, Mensah’s averaged Z-Score is… 3.612. Oh, and he’s above average in his offensive impact numbers as well. He is expected to miss at least a few games with a respiratory issue. For the Aztecs’ sake, hopefully it’s nothing too serious.
4. Jordan Schakel, San Diego State. Averaged Z-Score: 1.936. 10.1 Pts. 3.7 Rebs. 0.5 Ast.
Jordan Schakel’s shooting may have cooled off a little recently but he is still hitting deep shots at a 43.5% clip on almost 5 attempts per game. He is 7th in PIPM and 5th in POE. He’s the type of player who has an impact on the offense just by being on the court, because you can’t help off of him. He’s awfully close to getting the illusive 50/40/90 shooting line that shooters want. His current line is 55/44/83. His defensive impact has also been surprisingly good.
3. Sam Merrill, Utah State. Averaged Z-Score: 2.505. 17.1 Pts. 5 Reb. 3.8 Ast.
Sam Merrill may be the best all around player on the list. He ranks 4th in PIPM and 2nd in POE. He is a highly efficient offensive player, and is known as a great defensive stopper as well. He has the size to guard multiple positions, he distributes the ball well and doesn’t turn it over often, he has good rebounding numbers, and can obviously hit shots from anywhere on the court. His defensive impact numbers have dropped off from last season, but are still good, likely the result of a different defensive role.
2. Justin Bean, Utah State. Averaged Z-Score: 2.569. 14.2 Points. 11.4 Rebs. 2.4 Ast.
Justin Bean has been the breakout player in the Mountain West. All of his significant box score numbers have more than doubled from his freshman season, which is more impressive when you consider Utah State’s Strength of Schedule at this point is harder than what it was last season. Bean ranks 2nd in PIPM and 11th in POE. He is the second most impactful defensive player in the conference to this point (the +3.74 D-PIPM that was mentioned in Nathan Mensah’s blurb.) Offensively he’s great at your typical big man actions such as put backs (23rd in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage) and cuts (85th Percentile), but he’s more mobile than your typical big man. His main weakness is that he can’t shoot from deep. Despite that, Utah State’s future looks bright with Justin having two more years of eligibility after this season ends.
1. Malachi Flynn, San Diego State. Averaged Z-Score: 3.030. 15.5 Pts. 3.4 Rebs. 5.1 Ast.
Malachi Flynn’s advanced metrics have actually improved since the last article I put out. Remember how I said having a score greater than 3 is reserved for the truly elite? 0.7% of players in the Mountain West had a score greater than 3 or less than -3. Out of the 144 players who have played in the Mountain West so far this season, Malachi Flynn is the only player to do that. Whether it was scoring 28 points against a currently ranked Iowa team, or hitting a game winner over 3 defenders against San Jose State, Malachi Flynn has been dominant this season.
He ranks 1st in the conference in PIPM and 8th nationally (above players like Luka Garza, Cassius Winston, and Jordan Nwora). He also ranks 1st in the conference in POE, being 4.24 points more efficient per game than an average player. The difference in POE between Flynn and Sam Merrill (2nd in POE) is the same as the distance between Sam Merrill and the 9th most efficient player (Derrick Alston).
Also remember, that these numbers include defense as well, and Malachi’s defense has been way better than I thought it would be. When using only defensive metrics, Malachi ranks as the 3rd best defender in the conference so far. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but it is hard for me to imagine a legitimate argument for anyone other than Malachi to receive the Mountain West Player of the Year award.
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